FAQs

Noble Predictive Insights is a National Market Research firm with a stellar regional reputation and a local mom-and-pop feel. Our nimble size allows for flexibility and adaptability at a higher level of care and attention. Unencumbered by bureaucracy, our team can deliver your results with a singular focus and direct communication. The entire company commits to each project with each staff member familiar with the specific project's scope. This means our clients benefit from the commitments of project management, analytics, and communication outreach, all of whom bring a knowledgeable, seasoned, multifaceted point of view to your goals. The result is cost-effective market research conducted by passionate experts dedicated to your project and your objectives.

Election years in the United States are fraught with drama, and for good reason: in the democratic process, a single vote can change the course of history. Nowhere is this truer than the state of Arizona - our state of origin - thanks to its reputation as a crucial swing state. Whether it’s for a statewide office, a party primary, or a federal election, Arizona’s voters are hard to pin down. That's why we started regularly conducting nonpartisan election polling in Arizona and have expanded to Nevada and Utah with our Statewide Public Opinon Pulse polls. We also conduct public opinion polling for clients across the nation. This is why election polling is such a crucial campaign tool. As one of the most prominent survey research applications, election polling can reveal much than just who might or might not win an election. Polling can provide valuable information about the ways voters are thinking about the politics surrounding specific issues as well as how they feel about specific candidates.

OH Predictive Insights rebranded to Noble Predictive Insights in April 2023. We are the same company!

Our Statewice Public Opinion Pulse (POP) serves statewide polls to registered voters in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah with a statistically significant sample of likely voters included. Deploying quarterly surveys, we are able to ask specific questions that gauge the perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and plans of voters on the key issues driving political climates. For months before the historic 2020 Election, NPI was in the field monitoring Arizona likely voters on their opinions. We asked questions ranging from whom they supported for the Arizona Senate seat to President Trump’s approval rating, with plenty of timely questions thrown in for good measure – COVID-19 concerns, top issues, feelings about Arizona’s general direction, etc. The AZPOP press releases, social media posts, and the dashboard we offered quickly caught the interest of the local, regional, and national media, as well as anyone interested in monitoring the opinions of Arizonans. As races grew more controversial and Arizona became recognized for its newly designated battleground status, the AZPOP polls proved to be a strong indicator of voter behavior. Since 2020, our POPs in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah have continued the same success in midterm elections. Ultimately, NPI’s predictions became facts as we took a victory lap on behalf of our accuracy during a year when many polls missed the mark.

Even outside of election years, voter opinions still matter. Our Statewide Public Opinion Pulse is a recurring public sentiment poll in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah focusing on relevant issues that remind us that in a democracy, there is always another election. How does this benefit you? Organizations or individuals can add a customized question gaining access to top-tier research at a competitive price. When you add a question, you get: Trending Polling Data including top-issue, Presidential job approval, generic congressional ballot, and more… Crosstab/Topline Poll Reports Survey Summary Presentation Deck Expert Analysis on trending questions and your added questions Discover opportunities and understand how voter sentiment surrounding your questions All questions are kept strictly confidential unless you expressly wish to have them released. *Please note: If you choose to release your questions, we must disclose who commissioned the study. Want to add a question to our next POP? Find out how here.

Arizona took its place on the big stage as it assumed battleground status during the 2020 election cycle and continually absorbs an influx of new residents – both Phoenix and Maricopa County have ranked first in fastest-growing cities and counties. This growth is likely to result in a new congressional seat and an additional electoral vote after the 2020 Census. As an accompaniment and support to this new position, the Greater Phoenix Chamber and Noble Predictive Insights partnered to bring Arizona’s business, political, and education communities the Arizona Business Index™ (ABI), a barometer of the health of the Arizona economy from the perspective of the Arizona consumer. The Index provides robust data that breaks down over 2,000 demographic combinations ranging from suburban moms and millennials in the workforce to homeowners and renters. Information from the Index provides insight into public opinion regarding housing, automobile sales, the job market, the economy, and the personal credit card debt of Arizonans. An observer will be able to see when there is a shift in consumer sentiment and, in return, expect a change in economic activity.

The ABI provides robust data that breaks down over 2,000 demographic combinations ranging from suburban moms and millennials in the workforce to homeowners and renters. Information from the Index provides insight into public opinion regarding housing, automobile sales, the job market, the economy, and the personal credit card debt of Arizonans. An observer will be able to see when there is a shift in consumer sentiment and, in return, expect a change in economic activity. How can this impact your business? It provides information relevant to decisions about marketing, human resources, strategic planning, and so much more. The ABI also examines the individual’s current situation and future expectations for personal finances, business conditions, and buying confidence of major household items. The ABI is continually updated on a monthly and quarterly schedule, and additions to the standard questions can be tailored to the individual businesses that invest.

An online focus group, aka virtual focus group, is an online panel with multiple participants and a moderator, aimed at discovering rich insights that can’t be found with static surveys First and foremost, why are organizations conducting focus groups? Organizations aren’t conducting focus group research just out of pure curiosity. They have a product or service they’re developing for a specific demographic, and they need feedback on that development process from prospective consumers that their product or service is geared towards. Therefore, sourcing targeted focus group participants is crucial; populating your focus group with individuals who don’t truly represent your target audience(s) will result in research findings that may not be applicable. This is why partnering with a research firm that knows how to source local populations with acute accuracy is so crucial. However, like most things in our day-to-day life, the pandemic changed the way researchers conducted focus groups. Many clients are looking for a safe environment to conduct them, so they’re turning to online focus groups. Ensuring that distance for COVID-safety measures is in place, virtual focus groups have become a great way to get a selected group to discuss advertisements, messages, and deeper insights into the “why” behind perceptions and opinions. So, what is an online focus group? Glad you asked! An online focus group, aka virtual focus group, is an online panel with multiple participants and a moderator, aimed at discovering rich insights that can’t be found with static surveys. The purpose of the focus group is that the interaction between the participants will allow for each person to share their unique perspective as well as influence others with open discussion. The overall goal is to share thoughts on the products, new concepts, or tell researchers specific insights about themselves as a target audience. Although focus groups have traditionally been in-person, online focus groups are becoming increasingly popular due to their convenience, both with timing and allowing researchers to reach people across geographies. They are also relatively inexpensive and offer multimedia capabilities such as videos, imagery, or audio clips. What are the benefits of an online focus group? Online focus groups offer many benefits for your organization. As we always say, work smarter, not harder. With the ever-advancing world of technology, online focus groups can save your organization time and money (who would ever say no to that?). Instead of attempting to find a time and agreeable location to get all participants in one location at the same time, they can do so from the comfort of their home or office. A comfortable environment also minimizes the chance of external factors, as they are more likely to share their thoughts in their own familiar surroundings. The recruiting process for an online focus group allows for the ability to draw participants from a national recruiting pool rather than from a few-mile radius and can result in participants that are perfectly qualified to give their opinions. As for the analysis of an online focus group, recordings and transcripts have a faster turnaround time which in turn means we are able to provide deliverables at a faster turnaround rate than in-person. Additional features that online focus groups have to offer are break-out rooms, which allow for smaller group discussions that some may feel more comfortable sharing in as opposed to a larger group setting. As mentioned earlier, the multimedia capabilities of an online focus group such as screen sharing can help provide visual aid for participants. For example, show the conversation outline on-screen as you talk through the discussion flow, or display the current discussion topic or questions. Screen share can also be used for something more visual, such as a diagram, or an image of a scene, product, or logo. When do I use a focus group over other types of research? Surveys are a great source to find information, but sometimes a one-way questionnaire isn’t sufficient for what you’re looking for. Focus groups offer a deeper conversation with follow-up questions and longer explanations. A focus group can be beneficial because it can help your organization uncover ideas and issues that your team may not have considered. They offer first-hand, spontaneous reactions the participants have toward the topic or product. Focus groups also offer a quicker way to gather information, and virtual focus groups allow for an even shorter data collection timeline.

As both the capital of Arizona and its most populous city, Phoenix is the beating heart of the Grand Canyon State. There are more than 1.6 million residents in the city, and the surrounding metropolitan area adds another 3 million residents into the mix. This makes Maricopa County the fourth-largest county in the United States AND the state capital with the highest population. Market research firms love Phoenix because of its dense, ethnically diverse population, making it a favorite for focus group research. But data is only as good as its accuracy. It is vital to partner with the right market research firm. Our experts at NPI know how to source local populations with an eye for accuracy. We populate our focus groups with prospective consumers who fit your parameters designated by your business's product or service while knowing what questions to ask to uncover the most relevant and impactful answers – all backed by data.

NPI offers a full range of market research services, including advertising studies, brand-specific surveys, general market surveys, public opinion, ballot-tracking, and election result surveys. We don’t just hand data; we hand you answers. After your project is complete, we will provide analytics, visualizations, options for more exploration, and specific, actionable insights. We also offer a public presentation if that is something that works for your stakeholders. NPI is the best option for local area market research. Our expert staff is based in the Phoenix metropolitan area; it’s where we work, live, and play. What this means to you is that we have our fingers on the pulse of the region. We know the right questions to ask, how to phrase them for the most revealing data, and where to find the best demographics.

Your business can use a survey – or multiple surveys if you want to track opinions over time – to gain valuable intelligence and market research. You can also ascertain current needs or desires. It can function as a crystal ball, giving you a forewarning about what is likely coming down the road. Your customers may be nearing the end of needing a particular service from you while they are wishing for something else or a new option. A survey helps your business see what’s coming ahead of time so that you can change and adapt. The information you will receive is endless, helping you learn where you stand with your customers, fine-tune your approach, craft your messaging, and modify your communication platforms. You get the most bang for your buck by reaching whom you need to reach right where they are – including existing customers, sales leads, influencers, and decision-makers.

What are the best practices for question scripts? First, you don’t have to know what questions to ask. We are here to guide you on what questions to ask - and how to ask them - in order to receive the data you need. There are many strategies we can implement to ensure the accuracy of your data, including: Script Logic (knowing who is taking your survey) Lack of Bias (using non-descriptive words, refraining from using adjectives or phrasing that may influence answers, understanding and considering connotations and nuance) Accounting for Social Desirability Bias (When asking about things that most people believe they should be doing but aren’t [or vice versa], respondents are more likely to lie) Using direct, concise questions to avoid confusion. Proofreading for accuracy and continuity Using a 5- or 7-Likert Scale (making options more specific by including five or seven answer choices with a neutral answer choice in the middle What makes a “bad” question?” Occasionally, it is obvious when a question is worded poorly. For example, if a pollster were to ask, “How well is Politician X performing as Governor,” they are already biasing respondents towards thinking that Politician X performs well. A better way to phrase this question would be: “How do you believe Politician X is performing as Governor?” With this wording, the pollster does not lead the respondents, and the answer is viable, relevant information. Our experts know how to craft questions to get you an accurate answer. Perhaps more importantly, we know how to avoid asking questions that will taint the results.

The first step of data collection is to determine your target group. The sample needs to be controlled and representative of the population you wish to survey - which was defined by researching your target group’s demographics. By understanding these, you eliminate the noise, focusing on the specific characteristics that matter most to you, such as the ratio of females to males or your population’s age breakdown. Once your target group is determined, the next steps include: Pre-Stratification - breaking the population out into different layers and controlling the respondents to properly represent the target group’s demographics. Data Verification - cleaning out people who may have clouded the data by answering questions rapidly or inaccurately. Post-Stratification - plugging data into statistical software to guarantee accuracy within the methodology.

First, what is an online panel? An online panel is made up of millions of people who sign up to take surveys to get paid. ​To put it into perspective, it’s very similar to how focus groups recruit their panelists; however, online provides a much larger and diverse panelist sample pool to pull from compared to focus groups. These panelists are vetted through an initial background and interests survey. This is a 10-15 minute survey asking generic questions such as what state you reside in, what city, zipcode, your HHI, gender, age, ethnicity, interests, hobbies, and more. This initial survey helps providers accurately quote the number of people within the given criteria to answer future surveys. For example, if your only criteria is that the respondents must be Male, the number of surveys you can have filled out are extremely high. How are they selected? Based on their answers from the initial survey, the possible qualified respondents are notified when there is a survey they qualify for. Most of the qualified respondents are re-qualified in what we call qualifying questions. Sometimes panelists move states, make more money than they did in their initial survey, or some other demographics have changed. Once the respondent is re-qualified through qualifying questions, they are accepted to take the remainder of the survey. Can respondents lie? Of course, however, it is usually obvious that they aren’t whom they say they are when they complete a survey under the 25% quadrant or select all “Very Favorable” or all “Neutral” or don’t fill out open-ended questions with a valid answer. These people are cleaned out then the additional sample is requested to ensure data integrity.

A t-test helps you discover if a survey you conducted has results that matter. Let’s say that you are a pollster in the Phoenix-area, and you want to gauge how voters feel about the president’s job performance. You survey 600 people and ask them to rank the president’s job performance on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being the lowest. After reviewing the results and doing some quick math, you learn that the president’s average approval in your poll was 2.7. What can you learn from this? This is where a t-test comes in. There are three types of t-tests that people can use: one-sample t-tests, two-sample t-tests, and paired t-tests. To perform a t-test we: Calculate the t-statistic - Based on whether you are using a one-sample, two-sample, or paired t-test. Calculate the degrees of freedom - Broadly speaking, the number of ways that your sample can change. Larger sample sizes have more degrees of freedom because they have more data points that can change the overall mean. Again, based on what type of t-test you are performing. Calculate the critical value - the threshold at which the difference in your means can be considered “statistically significant.” Compare the absolute value of the t-statistic to the critical value. If your t-statistic is greater than your critical value, there is a statistically significant difference between the two numbers. If your t-statistic is less than your critical value, you cannot say that the two numbers you are comparing are statistically different. Between these three types of t-tests, you can discover statistical differences and similarities between groups, statistical changes of a group over time, and any statistical differences before/after implementing a dependent variable for a group, such as a political ad.