Arizona’s GOP on an Upswing
PHOENIX (December 10, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) reveals a nuanced political mood in Arizona following the 2024 election, with voters expressing a mix of hope and ongoing concerns about key state issues.
This AZPOP, conducted from November 20–25, 2024, surveyed 988 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
State Direction: Cautious Optimism
The AZPOP has found a slowly growing sense of optimism about Arizona’s trajectory. While a majority of voters (56%) still felt the state was heading in the wrong direction in November, it is a noticeable improvement from August, when 60% expressed pessimism, and from May (62%). The share of voters who believe Arizona is on the "right track" rose to 44% in November, up from 40% in August and 38% in May.
With the 2024 general election results still fresh in Arizonans’ minds, Republicans’ optimism has nearly doubled from August (23% right direction) to November (45%), while Democrats’ pessimism grew from 35% in August to 52% in November. Democrats and Republicans are driving the changes – Independents remain the most skeptical group, with only a 3% increase in optimism from August (36%) to November (39%).
"Republicans are optimistic and energized after Trump’s win while Democrats are discouraged – Gallego’s win was a victory for Democrats, but it wasn’t enough to improve their outlook," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "But Arizona voters are pragmatic. They know that there is still work to be done in the state, and there is fertile ground for positive change – if leaders can rise to the occasion."
Leadership: A Narrow Republican Edge
When it comes to Arizona’s leadership, the November AZPOP shows Republicans retaining a slight advantage, statistically equal to their lead in August. In both August and November, 45% of voters believed Republicans are better equipped to run the state, compared to 41% who favored Democrats in November and 42% in August.
Independents remain divided, though they are more prone to prefer Republican leaders post-election – in August, Democrats led among Independents by 2 points; in November, Republicans now lead by 8 points. Around one-third each lean toward Democrats (30%) and neither party (32%). This level of division highlights the critical role Independents continue to play in shaping Arizona’s governance.
“Republicans have a decent – but not unbeatable – edge on who is thought to run the government more effectively. Republicans have effectively appealed to Independents this election, and voters now trust them to govern,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “If the GOP governs well, they could grow this edge – and if they fail, they could easily give it up.”
Top Issues: Bipartisan Agreement on Inflation and Housing
Economic concerns continue to dominate Arizona’s political agenda. Since August, inflation, immigration, and affordable housing have remained the most pressing issues for voters.
Inflation and affordable housing remained in the top three issues across party lines. Republicans are united in their prioritization of immigration (62%) and inflation (60%), and a majority or near-majority of Independents care most about inflation (52%), immigration (48%), and affordable housing (47%). Democrats, on the other hand, are more split in their priorities, with no majority agreement on top issues. Affordable housing (39%), abortion (37%), and inflation (35%) are most important to Democrats.
“The 2024 election didn’t solve the problems facing Arizona. Pocketbook issues and immigration are still top of mind. But there’s some goodwill in the direction of the state numbers – and in the favorability ratings for individual politicians,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Favorability: Positive for Key Politicians
Arizona voters are generally happy with key politicians who will be in power in 2025 – Arizona Senator-elect Ruben Gallego (+18 net favorability), President-elect Donald Trump (+7), and Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs (+5).
For the first time in 2024, Donald Trump has earned a net-positive favorability rating, with a majority of Arizona voters having a favorable view of the president-elect post-election. Independents are the main drivers behind Trump’s bump in favorability – a 50% majority hold a favorable view of him in November, up a significant 9 points from August.
“Arizonans are more positive about Trump than they’ve been in a long time. They’re willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in his new term. And, while voters are still unhappy with Joe Biden, they haven’t turned against Kamala Harris. And they view Gallego very positively,” said Byler. “Essentially, this is a honeymoon – voters are willing to give their leaders some running room after an election. What remains to be seen is whether the good feelings last.”
The November 2024 AZPOP shows that Arizona voters are feeling more positive post-election, but the real test will be how 2025’s leaders rise to the challenge in their governing.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from November 20–25, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 988 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.