Voters Evenly Split on Potential Ballot Measure on Abortion Rights
PHOENIX (June 4, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) found that public opinion on abortion laws remains steady, and discovered what some of the “certain circumstances” voters deem acceptable for a legal abortion.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
Public Opinion on Abortion
In February (before the Supreme Court ruling enforcing the 1864 near-total ban on abortion), 40% of respondents expressed support for abortion being legal under any circumstances, while 50% favored legality only under certain circumstances. In May, these figures remained virtually unchanged, with 40% still supporting abortion under all circumstances and 49% wanting legality under certain conditions.
“When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”
A majority of Democrats (63%) and a plurality of Independents (41%) believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances. This contrasts with only 19% of Republicans who share this view.
Interpreting “Certain Circumstances”
This AZPOP dug deeper to find out what those “certain circumstances” might be for voters. Among those voters who say that abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances, overwhelming majorities classified cases where the mother’s life was endangered (85%), instances of rape (82%), and cases of incest (78%) as acceptable circumstances for legal abortions. A smaller majority support abortions for babies at risk of severe complications (57%), and a plurality support abortions within a certain timeframe (45%).
Time Frame for Abortion
Regarding the acceptable time frame for abortion, according to those voters who want some exceptions on legal abortions, 47% find abortion acceptable within the first 6 weeks of pregnancy (within the first missed menstrual cycle/prior to a heartbeat) and 43% support abortions up to 15 weeks (roughly the end of the first trimester of pregnancy).
“These numbers are better for the pro-choice side than the pro-life side,” said Byler. “Almost half of the electorate either wants abortion to always be legal or legal up to 24 weeks. Voters who are open to greater restrictions are all over the map. Some favor an early 6-week limit, others stop at the first trimester, and others want a full ban. The pro-choice side is closer to consensus – and that’s part of why they’re on a winning streak.”
Abortion’s Impact on Elections
Voters say that a candidate’s stance on abortion is just as impactful on their vote in May (38% “very impactful”) as it was in February (36% “very impactful”). Other categories remained stable, showing a consistent view among voters regarding the importance of abortion in their electoral decisions.
However, when placed in the broader context of state issues, abortion does not dominate the concerns of most voters. Only 30% of respondents identify abortion as one of the top three issues facing the state, only 5% higher than February’s pre-ruckus poll, where it stood at 25%. Just 12% of voters now consider it the single most important issue, statistically unchanged from 10% in February. This data indicates that while abortion remains important for a portion of the electorate, it is generally overshadowed by other pressing issues.
“Voters say that abortion will influence their vote. And it will. But so will inflation, immigration, housing, and so many issues. Both sides have strong messages on different issues – and that’s why it’s such a competitive election,” said Byler.
Voter Support for Fetal Viability Ballot Measure
When asked about a potential 2024 ballot measure that would establish the fundamental right to an abortion within the point of fetal viability (between 24 and 28 weeks), voters are evenly divided. Among all registered voters, 41% would support the measure, while an equal 41% would oppose it, and 18% remain unsure.
“This is a perfect example of how a small share of voters in battleground Arizona often end up deciding elections,” said Byler. “With an even split like this, those 18% of undecideds will make or break this ballot measure.”
This division in support of the ballot measure varies significantly by political party affiliation. Among Democrats, a substantial majority of 62% support the measure, showcasing a strong alignment with pro-choice values. Only 21% of Democrats oppose it and 17% are undecided. On the other hand, Republican voters show strong opposition, with 62% against the measure, reflecting the party's generally pro-life stance. About one-quarter support the measure (23%) and 16% are undecided. Independents are split but lean slightly more toward supporting the measure (41%) than opposing it (37%) while 22% remain uncertain.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About the AZPOP: The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) serves statewide polls to 800-1,000 Arizona registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. Deploying quarterly surveys, the AZPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.
Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any AZPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the AZPOP here.