General Election Showdown Looms as GOP Primary Candidates Bid to Challenge Governor Katie Hobbs
PHOENIX (February 26, 2025)- Arizona Republicans are starting to think about the 2026 gubernatorial primary, with about half of them already having an idea who they might support, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). This survey highlights voters’ preferences and expectations for both the Republican primary and the general election matchup.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 11–13, 2025, surveyed 1,006 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%. The total sample included 374 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.07%.
Republican Gubernatorial Primary: A Wide-Open Race
A highly uncertain landscape defines the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with nearly half of registered GOP voters yet to decide on a preferred candidate. When asked which candidate they would support, GOP voters were nearly evenly divided among top contenders. Andy Biggs and Charlie Kirk garnered 14% each, followed by Karrin Taylor Robson at 11%. Other potential candidates – Jack McCain (8%), Kimberly Yee (5%), and Jake Hoffman (1%) – have single-digit support.
"Arizona Republicans are still getting to know their potential candidates, which is reflected in the high number of undecided voters," said David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI. "There’s so much we don’t know. We can’t know who is a ‘likely voter’ when we don’t know exactly who will run, how competitive the race will be, or almost anything about the overall political climate. What we can know now: the average Republican voter is undecided."
The three current top contenders – Karrin Taylor Robson, Charlie Kirk, and Andy Biggs – have the highest favorability ratings, leading the other names by double digits. Notably, large shares of GOP voters expressed no opinion or unfamiliarity with all names presented. This suggests name recognition is currently a driving factor in perceived electability.
When asked about each potential candidate’s electability — or whether that candidate could win the 2026 governor race — a significant share remained uncertain about each candidate’s electability. GOP voters showed slightly more confidence in Kirk (34%), Biggs (33%), and Taylor Robson (32%) compared to McCain (23%), Yee (20%), and Hoffman (17%).
"In a field without a clear frontrunner, candidates must work to establish their identity with Republican voters who remain largely undecided," noted Mike Noble, Founder and CEO of NPI. "At this early point, almost none of the candidates have finished that work. That means that better-known candidates are much more likely to register as ‘electable.’"
Trump’s presence looms large over this primary: 71% of respondents said they would be more likely to support a candidate backed by the president, with 41% saying they would be “much more likely.”
While no “official” endorsement has been made, Karrin Taylor Robson has verbal backing from President Trump in the 2026 gubernatorial race, which could be a key factor in Taylor Robson’s positive numbers in this poll. If Trump reiterates his endorsement, changes his mind, campaigns for Taylor Robson – or almost anyone else in this primary – it will make waves.
Bottom line: it’s way too early to know who will win. As Byler noted, “We’re over a year away from this election. Of course voters are undecided. As they should be – they don’t know the candidates yet and many of them may not have registered what Trump said about Taylor Robson last year. But, even though Republicans don’t know who they’ll pick, they know what type of candidate they’re looking for.”
Republican Voter Preferences for GOP Candidates
The poll also asked GOP voters what qualities they want to see in the Republican nominee for Governor. When able to “select all that apply,” a majority of Arizona Republicans identified strong border enforcement (66%), loyalty to Donald Trump (53%), focus on tax and government spending cuts (53%), and ability to solve local issues (50%) as the most important qualities in a nominee.
When asked to pick a single defining quality, a 27% plurality prioritized Trump loyalty, followed by strong border enforcement (19%) and general electability (10%).
"The data makes one thing clear: this is Donald Trump's party," emphasized Noble. "The most prominent issue for voters – border security – aligns perfectly with Trump's priorities. And voters explicitly told us they want a Trump loyalist. I expect Republican voters to choose a Trump ally as their nominee."
General Election Matchups: A Competitive Race
Looking ahead to the general election, the poll tested potential Republican candidates in hypothetical matchups against incumbent Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs. The results suggest a highly competitive race. While no Republican candidate holds a clear edge over Hobbs, the most competitive contenders as of the February AZPOP appear to be McCain and Biggs:
"Despite being an incumbent, Governor Hobbs is far from secure," said Noble. "With multiple candidates already polling within striking distance, the data suggests this will be a close race from start to finish."
Another dynamic that will play a big role in how this race shapes out as the midterm election cycle progresses is party loyalty. In each hypothetical head-to-head polled, Democrats were more unified behind Hobbs (at least 8 in 10 Democrats supported Hobbs in each matchup) than Republicans were for each of their potential candidates (around 7 in 10). There are meaningful shares of undecideds among GOP voters – unsurprising considering that the primary is more than a year away – meaning the GOP has more room to grow.
“Other polls that we’ve conducted – internally and for private clients – have shown a better overall political climate for the GOP. This survey, due to the normal bounciness that comes with random sampling, happened to be a little better for the Democrats than the average,” said Byler. “Combine that with the fact that the GOP is the larger party and there are more undecided Republicans, and you see a very close race.”
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 11–13, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,006 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. The total sample included 374 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.07%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.