Lake’s Victory Validates NPI’s Accuracy
PHOENIX (August 1, 2024)- As unofficial results from Arizona’s 2024 primaries are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the outcome of Arizona’s GOP Senate primary.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of record, conducted from July 22–23, 2024, surveyed 438 likely Republican primary voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ±4.65%.
Senate
In NPI’s poll of record, conducted in the final days leading up to the Arizona GOP Senate primary, accurately forecasted the race’s outcome. The poll predicted a significant lead for Kari Lake over Mark Lamb, with Lake at 50% and Lamb at 38%. This 12-point advantage for Lake in the poll closely mirrored the actual results of the primary. As of July 31, unofficial results confirm Lake’s victory with her securing 55.3% of the vote compared to Lamb’s 39.3%. This precision in predicting the primary results underscores NPI’s robust polling methodology and their keen understanding of Arizona’s Republican electorate.
*Note: reporting is still in progress with 80% of expected votes in as of 7/31/2024 at 2:00pm
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO commented on the findings: “Trump’s endorsement in Arizona is gold. Arizona’s GOP landscape has undergone a seismic shift since 2016. What we’re seeing with Lake is the culmination of years of realignment toward Trump-style politics. Lake has masterfully positioned herself as the torchbearer of the MAGA movement in Arizona, and it won her the primary.”
Arizona used to be known for maverick Republicans like John McCain. Now, it’s at the forefront of the MAGA movement. Lake’s lead isn’t just about her as a candidate – it’s a reflection of how deeply Trump’s influence has permeated Arizona’s Republican base. In NPI’s poll of record, Lake earned nearly twice as much support from Trump-first GOP voters (61%) than Lamb (32%). Party-first Republicans preferred Lamb, but not nearly by as large a margin (49% for Lamb, 38% for Lake).
NPI stands out as the only pollster consistently tracking this race throughout 2024, with three polls conducted in February, May, and July. This consistent coverage is significant, especially given the lack of public polling from other sources after February. Political analysts and election watchers expected a wider margin in the primary, but our poll nailed the close primary prediction.
The conclusion of Arizona’s 2024 primary election reaffirms the importance of pollsters with deep local knowledge and proven methodology. This latest poll in our Arizona series demonstrates our continued commitment to accurate electoral forecasting in the state. Our track record of precision in Arizona contributes to our high national ranking for pollster accuracy, particularly in the Southwest region, as recognized by FiveThirtyEight in the 2021-22 election cycle.
“We’re accurate because we care. We think hard about who to interview, how to write the best questions, the best ways to weight and do data science, how not to waste respondents’ time — basically we sweat the small stuff. And, in this primary season, that attention to detail has paid off,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
Maddy Westcott, NPI Data Analyst added: “We accurately predicted the GOP primaries in Nevada and Utah, and now we've completed the trifecta with Arizona. Primary polls can be notoriously challenging, but our perfect record speaks volumes about our methodology and understanding of the electorate. Nailing all three primaries feels like we've not just met expectations, but exceeded them.”
Learn more about NPI’s polling in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah here.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 22-23, 2024, from an Arizona statewide Republican likely voter sample (frequent primary voters and Republicans registered after the 2022 primary). The sample size was 438 likely Republican primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.65%. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, and county to reflect the projected Arizona Republican primary electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
Media Contact:
Katherine Cohen, Noble Predictive Insights, k.cohen@npredictive.com
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
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