Contention Between National Media and Arizona Business Leaders May Be Impacting Public Opinion
PHOENIX (March 6, 2024)- As one of the hottest and driest states in the U.S., the state of Arizona’s water supply is often in question. Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) provides a unique insight into what Arizona voters, living in the heart of this issue, think about the water supply in The Grand Canyon State.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 6–13, 2024, surveyed 1,002 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
According to the February AZPOP, 3 in 5 Arizona voters believe that the state is running out of water.
Over the last several months, discussions have been circulating locally and nationally regarding concern for Arizona’s water supply. The New York Times, for example, has published a handful of articles stating concerns that Arizona is low on water. One particular article from June of 2023 received pushback from the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry President & CEO Danny Seiden. In an interview with 12 News, Seiden responded to the New York Times article: "How often has the national media gotten this wrong? I look forward to reminding the New York Times of that 10 years from now, just like the Smithsonian, who 10 years ago predicted we would be out of water. Phoenix would be out of water right now."
While the Arizona business community pushes back against intense claims of Arizona’s dwindling water supply, Arizona voter sentiment remains more aligned with the likes of The New York Times.
“This is an interesting scenario of perception versus reality,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “We [NPI] are no water experts, so I can’t tell you what the reality actually is; but what I can tell you is that the contention in conflicting opinions from the media and Arizona’s business leaders has an impact on public opinion, leaving us with an overall public perception that Arizona is in a tough spot with water.”
The data from this AZPOP may support the hypothesis that the media – specifically The New York Times – impacts the perceptions of Arizona voters. Voters who say they get their news from The New York Times on a daily basis are more likely to believe Arizona is running out of water (76%) than daily consumers of any other new source.
Concern with water issues in Arizona does not fluctuate in large amounts across parties – no party strays more than 9% above or below the toplines. However, this AZPOP did find an interesting correlation between political ideology and opinion on water in Arizona.
Republicans on each end of the ideological spectrum have the most polarized opinions. Liberal Republicans are the most likely to believe that Arizona is running out of water at 78% while conservative Republicans are the most likely to say Arizona is not running low on water at 43%. Meanwhile, conservative Democrats have the smallest share of voters saying water is dwindling (49%) for their respective side of the political aisle.
“What the data shows here is that water concerns in Arizona are not a political issue as much as they are an ideological divide,” said Mike Noble. “It’s interesting that the more liberal a voter is, the more they believe Arizona is running out of water, but on the flip side, the more conservative the voter, the less worry they have about Arizona’s water supply.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 6–13, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,002 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, m.noble@npredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.