AZ Housing Squeeze: Voters Demand Affordability, Action
PHOENIX (March 4, 2025)- Housing affordability remains a top concern for Arizona voters, according to new public opinion data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). With home prices and rent surging, a plurality of Arizonans express frustration over the high cost of living and show strong support for new housing developments aimed at reducing costs.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 11–13, 2025, surveyed 1,006 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
Housing Headaches: A Top Concern
Housing affordability took the spotlight in the latest AZPOP. When asked to identify the most pressing issues facing the state, 40% of Arizona voters ranked affordable housing among their top three concerns, including 12% who identified it as their number one issue. Concern was particularly high among voters who have lived in Arizona for 5-10 years, Democrats, voters aged 30-44, and those living in urban areas.
"When people talk about inflation or a cost-of-living crisis, they’re talking about housing,” said David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI. “This issue just recently burst onto the political scene – and the party that solves this issue could earn massive goodwill with the public."
Moving Out or Toughing it Out?
Housing costs are not just a distant policy issue – they are shaping life choices for many residents. The poll found that more than one-quarter of voters have seriously considered leaving Arizona due to housing prices, while another 51% agree that housing is too expensive, but don’t want to leave the state. Only 13% believe housing remains affordable in Arizona.
“In other states, housing prices shot up and people moved out. Arizona is not all the way there. Voters are frustrated about prices, but they’re not ready to leave,” said Byler. “That’s good news for the state. It means there’s still time to fix the issue and stop people from moving away."
Groups most likely to consider leaving the state:
· Ages 18-44: 39%
· Hispanic/Latinos: 38%
· Arizona natives: 35%
· Arizona tenure 5-10 years: 34%
· Parents of children under 18: 33%
· Urbanites: 33%
What are the potential solutions? Many Arizonans would move for more affordable housing, even if it meant longer commutes.
A plurality (43%) of Arizona voters would be willing to relocate within Arizona to access lower housing costs, even if it increased their commute to work, school, or other important locations by up to 30 minutes. However, a very similar share of voters (38%) said they would not move for less expensive housing if it meant more travel time.
"A lot of Arizonans are willing to move for affordable housing. That represents a massive opportunity for the exurbs of Phoenix and Tucson or really any other that’s willing to build,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder and CEO.
Groups most willing to move for lower costs:
· Ages 18-44: 55%
· Arizona tenure less than 5 years: 54%
· Non-white, non-Hispanics: 53%
· Arizona tenure 11-20 years: 53%
· Parents with kids under 18: 52%
· Urbanites: 52%
· High school or less education: 49%
· HHI less than $50k: 49%
· Hispanic/Latinos: 48%
"What we're seeing is a population caught between attachment to their communities and growing financial pressure," said Byler. "Many of the groups that feel the most financial stress – younger voters, those with lower household incomes or fewer diplomas – are expressing the most willingness to move. Their communities can find a way to make housing affordable or lose them to the new development right up the highway."
Build, Baby, Build: Voters Want More Housing
Arizona voters are also saying “Yes in my backyard” – backing the construction of new apartment complexes if it would reduce housing costs.
Specifically, respondents were asked: “Would you support or oppose building a new apartment complex within three miles of where you live if it would lower overall housing costs?” A 58% majority of voters supported the idea, and only a quarter of respondents disagreed.
Groups driving support:
· Liberals: 77%
· Democrats: 70%
· Urbanites: 69%
· Ages 18-44: 65%
· Pima County: 65%
· Hispanic/Latinos: 64%
· Parents with kids under 18: 64%
· Those who have considered moving out of the state: 64%
· Arizona tenure less than 5 years: 63%
· Arizona natives: 63%
Groups driving opposition:
· Those unwilling to move if it increases their commute: 36%
· Post-grads: 34%
· Conservatives: 34%
· Rural densities: 33%
· HHI less than $100k: 31%
· Ages 65+: 30%
· Arizona tenure 20+ years: 30%
“This level of support for nearby apartment development contradicts the usual 'not in my backyard' narrative, and signals that residents recognize new construction as essential to addressing the affordability crisis," said Mike Noble.
What’s Next for Arizona?
With broad support for development and relocation for cheaper housing, leaders at all levels need to prioritize policies that make Arizona livable for all. “Voters aren’t just complaining – they’re ready for action,” said David Byler. “Policymakers who champion housing reform will find themselves on the right side of public opinion."
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 11–13, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,006 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights revolutionizes decision-making for leaders by delivering data-driven solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters in the nation, as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias, in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.