Trump Expected to Improve Immigration and Economic Issues
PHOENIX (December 11, 2024)- Arizona voters have set clear expectations for Donald Trump’s second term, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The survey highlighted voters' hopes for improvements in key areas such as the economy, immigration, and national security, alongside lingering concerns about other issues like climate change and abortion access.
This AZPOP, conducted from November 20–25, 2024, surveyed 988 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
Voter Expectations for Trump 2.0
Now that the election is over, the next question in voters’ minds is, “What’s going to change?” This AZPOP explored voter expectations, asking what they expect to get better and what they anticipate getting worse under Trump’s presidency. The data reveals a blend of optimism, anxiety, and uncertainty, with voters placing high expectations on key areas like the economy and immigration, division on education and healthcare, and anxiety about climate change and abortion access.
Strengths: Economy, Immigration, and National Security
Trump enters his second term with high expectations from Arizona voters, particularly on economic concerns, immigration, and national security. This AZPOP dug deeper into voter sentiment on the economy and immigration before the election and under Trump’s leadership.
A majority of voters (59%) say that the economy was “poor” or “horrible” before the election. This sentiment is driven by strong majorities of Republicans (72%) and Independents (65%), whereas a majority of Democrats (64%) saw the economy as “great” or “fair.”
When asked a specific question about how the economy will fare under Trump, voters expect a change one way or another – only 10% say it will “stay the same.” A majority (53%) are optimistic that Trump will help it rebound. Republicans are the most optimistic, with 85% saying it will “get better,” and Democrats are the most pessimistic with 64% anticipating a worsening economy under Trump. Independents are the least united, though a slim majority believe the economy will improve (52%).
Immigration is another area where voters anticipate significant action. A strong majority of Arizona voters (71%) described the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border before the election as “poor” or “horrible” – including 55% of Democrats. Expectations for immigration under Trump’s presidency follow the same trend as expectations for the economy – a majority (54%) believe Trump will deliver improvements to border security, and parties are divided as one might expect.
“Arizonans don’t expect Trump to solve every problem in their lives – but they understand what he campaigned on, and they know what improvements they want to see,” said NPI CEO Mike Noble. “They want the border fixed and they want their economic pain to end. They think Trump can do it. And they’re going to be sorely disappointed if he fails.”
Weaknesses: Abortion Access and Climate Change
Despite optimism on certain issues, voters remain deeply concerned about others. Abortion access is a notable area of skepticism, with 41% of respondents predicting worsening conditions under Trump’s leadership and only 18% believing it will get better. Many voters expect Trump’s policies to result in further restrictions on reproductive rights, an issue highlighted during Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. Similarly, climate change is another main worry (37% “worse,” 20% “better”).
“There are pitfalls for Trump here, too. Arizonans think climate change will get worse, and they’re skeptical of Trump on abortion. And, if he’s not careful, issues like education, healthcare, and housing could get away from him, and many voters would take issue with that,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
Uncertain Territories: Education and Foreign Policy
Certain issues remain less defined in voters’ minds, presenting both opportunities and risks for Trump. Education is one such area. The survey showed that statistically equal shares of voters foresee improvements to education (34%) and predict worsening circumstances (35%). About one-quarter expect there to be no change. This lack of consensus reflects both the lower prioritization of education during the campaign and uncertainty about Trump’s plans.
Foreign policy presents an even murkier picture. Voters are split on what level of involvement the U.S. should have in international conflicts. This AZPOP asked about Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Palestine, and Taiwan and China conflicts – opinions were either evenly split on whether the U.S. should be more or less involved (Israel and Palestine, 44% each) or leaned slightly more towards less involvement (Taiwan and China: 39% more involved, 45% less involved; Ukraine and Russia: 40% more involved, 49% less involved).
Voters are also more unsure of what Trump will do with international conflicts. Voters are generally split with about 4 in 10 each saying the U.S. will be more/less involved. Republicans are slightly more likely to expect less involvement (47% compared to 40% “more involved”), while Democrats are slightly more unified in an expectation for more involvement (49% compared to 28% “less involved”). Independents are evenly split.
“The electorate doesn’t exactly know what it wants or what Trump will do,” Noble said. “That uncertainty gives him flexibility – a blank slate, in some ways. But it also risks alienating voters if he missteps.”
These findings highlight a clear divide in how voters perceive Trump's potential impact. While many are optimistic about his ability to deliver on the economy, immigration, and national security issues, significant concerns remain about his approach to social and environmental matters. Trump's success will hinge on delivering in his core areas of promise while navigating his more ambiguous issues – education, healthcare, and foreign policy.
Noble added: “Voters are telling us clearly how they’re going to grade Trump’s second term: on the economy and immigration. The question for the next four years is whether he can deliver.”
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from November 20–25, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 988 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.