New Poll Shows Broad Support for Proposition 314, Mixed Feelings on Executive Emergency Powers and Judicial Term Limits
PHOENIX (September 3, 2024)- The latest poll from Noble Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds varying levels of public support for key ballot measures this November. According to the poll, most voters support Proposition 314, which would widely reform Arizona’s immigration policy, but are less supportive of Proposition 135 (limiting executive emergency powers) and Proposition 137 (eliminating judicial terms limits).
Official ballot language for each measure discussed in this release can be found here.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 12–16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
Most Voters Back Immigration Initiative
This AZPOP shows strong support for Proposition 314, or the Immigration and Border Law Enforcement Measure. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Arizona voters said they would support the measure, 16% said they would not, and 6% would abstain from voting on this measure. The remaining 16% were unsure.
The highest support for Prop 314 was among conservatives (80%), Republicans (77%) – especially Trump-first Republicans (81%) – and voters over the age of 65 (72%). Statewide support for the ballot measure is further buoyed by majority backing from traditionally liberal blocs, including college and post-graduates (58% would vote “yes”), Hispanics (56%), Democrats (52%), and 18-to-34-year-olds (52%). Minorities of liberals (30% would vote “no”), Democrats (23%), and 18-to-34-year-olds (22%) also led the opposition to the measure.
However, not all components of the expansive Prop 314 are equally popular. According to the poll, supporters of the measure most strongly back two of its planks: holding drug dealers responsible for the death of a person who consumes a drug containing fentanyl (77% support), and requiring employers to verify the immigration status of workers (75% support). Their feelings are more mixed (56% support) about reforms surrounding how migrants obtain public benefits. Among those who oppose Prop 314, 31% oppose the punishments for fentanyl dealers, 47% are against immigration status verification in the workplace, and 64% oppose the portion determining how migrants obtain public benefits.
“Opponents will have trouble pushing the argument ‘people are only supporting this because of the fentanyl stuff, they don’t care about the immigration’ – that’s what voters like most about Prop 314,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Prop 314 is popular across party lines, and that is a difficult trend to disrupt with only a couple of months until Election Day.”
While support for Prop 314 is clear according to this AZPOP, Arizona voters are less supportive of other ballot measures.
Split Support for Gubernatorial Emergency Powers
Proposition 135, or the Emergency Declarations Amendment, would give the state legislature the power to terminate or alter emergency powers held by the governor during a state of emergency and automatically terminate any state of emergency after 30 days in all cases besides a war emergency, floods, or fires. Voters are evenly split on this measure with about one-third each supporting, opposing, and unsure about Prop 135.
Unsurprisingly, many voters are guided by partisanship on Prop 135. Democrats, who currently hold the governorship, do not want the Arizona Legislature to be able to override gubernatorial emergency declarations, with 41% voting “no” and 24% voting “yes.” Republicans, who lost control of the governorship in 2022 but currently control the Legislature, support the Emergency Declarations Amendment by a 15-point margin (39% “yes” vs. 24% “no”). Independent voters are split on the measure, with 24% supporting and 31% opposing.
Although not by significant amounts, the main drivers of the 30% of voters who are unsure on Prop 135 are agnostics (39%), voters living in rural areas (38%), and women (35%).
The long hangover from the COVID pandemic might matter here too. During the pandemic, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey issued a Public Health State of Emergency that lasted for two years – and rankled some anti-lockdown conservatives.
“Many conservatives haven’t forgotten COVID,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “Memories of lockdowns – combined with a Democrat in the governor’s mansion – make sense of the partisan divide we see on this issue.”
Voters Divided on Judicial Term Limits
The August AZPOP also asked voters about Proposition 137, or the End Term Limits and Retention Elections for Supreme Court Justices and Superior Court Judges Amendment. Overall, 31% supported this measure, which would replace term limits for Supreme Court and Superior Court justices with terms of good behavior, while 38% opposed it and 8% abstained. One-quarter of voters remain unsure.
The partisan divides on this measure were less obvious, although all seven members of the Arizona Supreme Court were appointed by a Republican governor. According to the poll, Republicans (30% support vs. 42% oppose) and Independents (25% support vs. 37% oppose) are sticking up for term limits, while Democrats (38% support vs. 35% oppose) aren’t as sure.
The most prominent gaps in support for Prop 137 were down the lines of education and age. Among voters with a high school education or less, 35% supported and 25% opposed, while a 56% majority of post-graduates opposed the measure and 30% supported it. Younger voters prefer ending term limits (among 18-to-34-year-olds, 40% supported and 27% opposed) while older voters want to keep them (among those older than 65, 24% supported and 53% opposed).
“While about 1 in 10 voters say they wouldn’t vote on Prop 135 or 137, the large shares of voters who are still unsure how they will vote on each measure will determine whether or not these measures pass come November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12–16, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.