Prop 139 Positioned to Pass
PHOENIX (October 31, 2024)- With only days until Election Day, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Arizona’s general election reveals extremely tight Presidential and U.S. Senate races, with a statistical tie between Trump and Harris, and Ruben Gallego leading by just 4 points.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 28–30, 2024, surveyed 775 likely general election voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ±3.5%.
President: Trump +1
In NPI’s Arizona Poll of Record, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by just 1 point (48%-47%) in the battle for Arizona’s critical 11 electoral votes. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, that margin didn’t change.
Trump and Harris have very similar levels of party loyalty, though Harris consolidates Democrats (90%) just slightly more than Trump does with GOP voters (87%). But, the larger number of Republicans in the electorate and in the pool of registered voters overall let Trump stay slightly ahead despite slightly worse numbers among Republicans.
Independents – known to be the ultimate decision-makers in races as close as this – are breaking for Harris by 8 points (50% to Trump’s 42%). These swing voters have been pelted with ads, mailers, phone calls, and more from both campaigns – and they’ll be key decision-makers. Harris has a notable advantage with this group, but, as of this poll, not quite enough to put her ahead of Trump.
“Arizona is a unique state – home to a strong MAGA base, a real segment of McCain moderates, true blue Democrats, and a healthy number of swing voters. This mix of voters can elect Democrats or Republicans. But we believe that Trump has the edge,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder and CEO. “By registration, the GOP is the largest party – so Trump doesn’t need full party loyalty to win. He needs enough Republicans and enough Independents to stay ahead of a unified Democratic Party. Right now, he has just that. But we’ll need to see what turnout looks like and what the last-minute deciders do to know exactly how this will unfold.”
Other demographic divides found in this poll are to be expected. Trump leads with men (+16) and White voters (+4), Harris leads with women (+12) and Hispanic voters (+8), and voters generally become more Democratic as educational attainment rises.
U.S. Senate: Gallego +4
In the state’s other race with national consequences, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake 47% to 44%. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Gallego leads by 4 points.
Despite Trump’s lead in the Presidential race, Gallego has a strong advantage attributed to slightly less Republican loyalty for Lake (82%) than Trump (87%), as well as a stronger margin among Independents for Gallego (+14) than Harris (+8).
“Lake has always had two problems. Republicans trust her less than they trust Trump, and a small group of Independents who are willing to vote for Trump and Gallego,” said Mike Noble. “Our polls have consistently found Trump and Gallego ahead. As Trump voters have come home to Lake, the gap has become smaller – but there’s still a gap. If Trump gains in the final stretch and beats his polls, he could pull Lake across the finish line. But our data shows that the most likely outcome is a split decision in favor of Trump and Gallego.”
Prop 139: Abortion Rights Have Majority Support
This poll also tested general opinion on Arizona’s abortion ballot initiative, using a condensed version of the ballot question to maintain an optimal length of interview (especially for live interviews). The poll’s wording was designed to capture overall sentiment on the issue rather than mirroring the exact ballot language.
Likely voters were asked: “There is a ballot initiative for the 2024 general election ballot called "The Arizona Abortion Access Act” or Prop 139. This initiative would amend the state's constitution to create a fundamental right to abortion and limit the state's ability to interfere with that right before fetal viability. After viability, abortions would be allowed when necessary to protect the life or health of the mother. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this amendment?”
Prop 139 is positioned to pass with 57% of Arizona likely voters supporting the measure and only 7% undecided.
The story here is familiar. There’s a sizable chunk of Republicans – almost all of whom are voting for Trump – who also favor abortion rights (30% support Prop 139). Democrats are in lockstep behind abortion rights (86% support). And, a majority of the all-important Independents back this measure. All in all, Prop 139 has enough support across party lines to win approval on Election Day.
“This is a classic wedge issue,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Democrats are united. Independents lean heavily pro-choice. And Republicans are divided. While this question isn’t a direct ballot test like our Senate and presidential numbers, we do see more support for the pro-choice side on abortion rights.”
Final Note from NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble:
“Arizona’s competitive landscape speaks to the importance of every voter,” said Mike Noble. “This election will hinge on which candidates can best capture the Independent and undecided voters who can tip the scales in either direction. The stakes are high, and Arizona’s role as a swing state will keep all eyes here through the final vote count.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 28-30, 2024, and surveyed Arizona registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 775 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Arizona electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.5% for likely voters. Error due to design, non-response and other factors are not captured by sampling error. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.