Prop 479 Maintains Majority Support Since 2023
PHOENIX (September 4, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) reveals extremely tight races in Maricopa County across multiple offices and sheds light on nuanced voter preferences that could shape the outcome of the upcoming elections. The poll also found continued support for the renewal of Proposition 479 (formerly known as Proposition 400), a half-cent sales tax funding transportation projects in Maricopa County.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 12-16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%. The full sample included 595 registered voters residing in Maricopa County, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.02%.
Prop 479
Proposition 479 (formerly known as Proposition 400) is a half-cent sales tax that funds transportation projects in Maricopa County. It expires in 2025, and its renewal will be on the county’s ballot in November. Prop 479 has had majority support from Maricopa County voters for more than a year – and, notably, opposition to the renewal has not changed in the past year.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Local Maricopa County Races: Tight as a Tick
The Maricopa County Sheriff race is a dead heat with both candidates, Tyler Kamp (Democrat) and Jerry Sheridan (Republican), earning 35% support each. Sheridan has consolidated more of his base (76% of Republicans) than Kamp (69% of Democrats), but Kamp has won over more Independents, 34% to Sheridan’s 22%.
In the Maricopa County Attorney race, Republican Rachel Mitchell holds a slim 2-point lead over Democrat Tamika Wooten, 37% to 35%. Wooten benefits from a 10-point lead among Independents as well as 8% support from Republicans compared to Mitchell’s 3% support from Democrats.
In the Maricopa County Assessor’s race, Democrat Gregory Freeman leads Republican Eddie Cook by 3 points (36% to 33%). Both candidates have an equal grip on their own parties, each earning 76% support among their respective parties. Although a significant 40% of Independents are unsure in this race, Freeman has the edge with a 15-point lead among Independents.
The Maricopa County Recorder race shows the widest gap of the local elections, but the race is still close. Democrat Tim Stringham leads Republican Justin Heap by just 4 points (38% to 34%). Both candidates have similar shares of support from their own parties as well as equal shares of support from across the aisle. Once again, Independents are breaking for the Democratic candidate 35% to 20%.
“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day – this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” said Noble. “But historical data might tell us more.”
The GOP Shops Locally in Maricopa County
Looking at the trend of recent elections in Maricopa County, the more local the election, the more competitive it is for the GOP.
Democrats currently have the advantage of marginal leads overall and larger leads among the all-important Independent voters. Republicans, on the other hand, have the historical advantage. Republicans won most of the more prominent local elections in recent years, many of which were just as tight as these 2024 races.
“Arizona is changing fast – but the state’s DNA is still Republican,” said Noble. “McCain Republicans, business moderates – the type of voters who might not like Trump but have a longstanding GOP loyalty and trust a competent local Republican – these voters have split their ticket in the past. They may do so again. Time will tell.”
State and Federal Races in Maricopa County
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate Rueben Gallego currently holds a significant 12-point lead over Republican Kari Lake (50% to 38%). This gap in the Senate race stands out as one of the more decisive leads in an otherwise closely contested political landscape in Maricopa County.
Maricopa County voters have Vice President Harris maintaining a slim 3-point edge over former President Trump (46% to 43%) in a head-to-head race. This razor-thin margin underscores Maricopa County’s crucial status in the upcoming election, where every vote could be pivotal.
Congressional races in the county also mirror the overall competitiveness of this upcoming election. When asked which party they will support when casting a vote for a member of Congress, Maricopa County voters are split with Democrats up by just 1 point, 43% to 42%.
Implications for Maricopa County
Arizona’s largest county and home to the 5th largest city in the nation, Phoenix, is at the heart of the state’s political climate. The current polling shows potential Democratic-leaning shifts, but with races as tight as these – and with such large shares of undecideds – it may still be too soon to tell.
“Will history repeat itself in Maricopa County’s local elections, or will we see a new political landscape come November?” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Navigating Uncertainty
Very few voters plan to abstain from the Maricopa County races – between 5% and 7% for each race. The challenge for candidates in these races will be winning over the 21% to 26% of unsure voters in each race and consolidating their bases without alienating moderate and Independent voters who may be put off by extreme positions or behaviors.
“There’s so much within the margin of error, it’s hard to pinpoint the decisive factors between races like Assessor and Sheriff,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Apart from Kari Lake’s race, these contests could all be in very similar positions.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder and CEO, cautions pollsters on the risks associated with releasing such close polling data as Election Day approaches: “If your poll says R+1 and the result is R+2.5, you’ll get credit for calling the race correctly. But if it says R+1 and the result is D+0.5, you’ll face criticism from both sides. It’s a tricky position to be in.”
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12–16, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. The full sample included 595 registered voters residing in Maricopa County, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.02%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
Comments