Could Arizona’s Next Governor Be an Influencer?
- Bradley Wascher
- Apr 3
- 4 min read
In February 2025, Noble Predictive Insights asked Arizona Republican voters who they would support in the 2026 GOP primary for governor. Tied for first place in our very early poll — at a modest 14% — was conservative activist and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Kirk has not announced or teased a campaign. But there have been rumors about his alleged interest, and our survey suggests that if he were to run for governor, Kirk might perform as well as — or better than — other candidates with more traditional, establishment credentials.
Kirk’s key advantage isn’t that he’s famous; he has the right kind of fame. Respondents know and like him: in our poll, he finished among the best in terms of both positive favorability and name recognition. This strong reputation among Republicans has been forged by Kirk’s years in the public eye, and he stands out even more thanks to his unique status as an activist-influencer.
To put Kirk’s numbers in context, we compared his favorability rating against other personalities or activists who have actually run for office, based on NPI polls from recent elections. For each of the three former candidates, we selected their final favorability rating before their most important election — typically the general election, except for Marlene Galán-Woods, who exited during her primary. For Kari Lake, we used her 2022 gubernatorial bid, as it marked her first time as a candidate.
The table also features two performance scores based on each candidate’s favorability ratings.**
The first score — the “fame factor” — measures whether someone is well-known and has a large fanbase, ignoring the presence of any disapprovers in the electorate. It simply divides a candidate’s favorability by the percentage who don’t know them.
The second score — the “clout quotient” — takes the haters into account. It looks at whether someone has a positive net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable rating) and divides that number by “never heard of” to factor in their reach.
Kirk is in the sweet spot, at least for the primary. He has a solid fame factor (meaning voters in our poll know who he is) and the best clout quotient in the table (meaning voters actually like him).
Galán-Woods also gave an impressive performance, placing middle-of-the-pack in both metrics. A former broadcast journalist, she sought the 2024 Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Dave Schweikert in the 1st Congressional District. Although in our poll Galán-Woods was the second least recognizable candidate ahead of the July primary, those with an opinion viewed her positively. She ultimately finished third in a multi-way pile-up — just 1,800 votes shy of winning the primary — and has already announced another bid for 2026.
By contrast, our polling found Kari Lake in a sour spot: high fame, low clout. Lake's Fame Factor was four times higher than that of runner-up Kirk. Yet her Clout Quotient was the lowest of the bunch, because a huge number of voters who know her dislike her.
Having neither clout nor fame is also a losing electoral strategy — look no further than Utah’s Caroline Gleich. Democrats nominated Gleich, a self-described “activist for the environment and equality,” in the 2024 U.S. Senate race in Utah against Republican then-Rep. John Curtis. Our polling suggests she was not very recognizable and struggled to endear herself to Utahns who did know her. She had some social media presence, but it was not enough to differentiate herself in a state where many voters pick Republicans up and down the ticket. Gleich lost by over 30 points: an expected, stinging result in the deep red Beehive State.
Together, these indices indicate Kirk is not just another activist who could possibly decide to run for political office. He’s an influencer — in the purest sense of the word, as he’s more influential than most of the other candidates — combining name recognition with high favorability. Kirk is undeniably on another level compared to Gleich and Galán-Woods, and if he ever did choose to enter the political arena, he would probably land closer to Lake in terms of initial celebrity and name recognition.
Depending on how the field shapes up, Kirk could find himself as the only activist-influencer running against mostly traditional politicians. If Kirk plays his cards right, his resume could be an advantage. In February, 53% of Republican voters told NPI they wanted a nominee who aligns with Trump – something Kirk has done very publicly. And, of all the dozen-plus qualities we tested in our poll, “experience in elected office” finished near the middle, at 30%.
This helps to explain how Kirk tied for first in our hypothetical six-way primary, at 14% with Rep. Andy Biggs, the five-term congressman from the 5th District. Kirk earned nearly three times the support of State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who was re-elected by 11 points in 2022 (even as Democrats nearly swept the remaining statewide offices) and finished fifth with 5%. Kirk’s net favorability was 31 points above water, better than all options except Karrin Taylor Robson, the runner-up in the 2022 gubernatorial primary — and Trump’s initial endorsee in the 2026 race. (Note that if Trump sticks with Robson and actively campaigns for her, the race will likely shift dramatically in her favor.)
Things will change with time. The real leader in our survey was uncertainty, with 47% of Republican voters undecided. The primary is over a year away, and so far, Biggs and Robson are the only notable Republicans who have officially filed to run. And, if Kirk were to run, the biggest question would be whether he can leverage his clout — or if he’ll become a victim of it.
In 1994, Phoenix sports broadcaster J.D. Hayworth successfully parlayed his local news experience into six terms as a Republican congressman. By 2006, he lost the endorsement of the Arizona Republic — and with it, his seat — for being, in the paper’s words, a “bully.”
And before Lake was a two-time GOP nominee for statewide elected office, she appeared for decades on televisions throughout the Valley anchoring the same station that formerly featured Hayworth. Heading into Election Day in 2022, Lake’s net favorability was even. Yet she exited the 2024 Senate election buried by 16 points, with 37% of Arizonans viewing her favorably and 53% unfavorably.
Running for governor wouldn’t be a moonshot for Kirk, but he would be bound by the same laws of gravity: stars rise quickly; they also fall fast.
** = I vaguely remember seeing analysis like this from another writer, but I can’t remember specifics. If you invented these metrics let us know and we will update the post with proper citation!
Table data sources:
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