MAGA or Just GOP? The Old Battle Lines Hold
PHOENIX (March 26, 2025)- Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) revealed a Republican Party that remains dominant in Utah while concurrently grappling with persistent internal divisions.
This UTPOP, conducted from March 11–13, 2025, surveyed 609 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.9%.
The GOP Is Still in Charge – But Which GOP?
While the Republican Party remains dominant in Utah, internal divisions persist, reflecting the ongoing tension between traditional conservatives and the MAGA faction. When asked which political party they believe would do a better job running the state, Republicans won by a 30-point margin (54% to 24% for Democrats), closely aligning with the 2024 statewide House popular vote. On a generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead by 19 points.
Put simply: Utah Republicans are still in charge.
The bigger question is which GOP faction is leading. Our data reveals that there are three key factions: 44% of Republican voters identify primarily as supporters of the Republican Party (“Party-first”), 41% primarily support Trump (“Trump-first”), and 14% said “Neither.” Republican politicians have found different ways to combine these factions and attain statewide popularity.
Donald Trump’s Path: Run up the score with his base
Trump has a net positive favorability rating in Utah for one simple reason: He has support from GOP voters. Almost every single “Trump-first” voter surveyed (99%) holds a favorable view of him. Trump’s support is a bit weaker, but still ultimately strong, with the party-first faction: 76% hold a favorable view of the President. Among Independents, Trump’s favorability sits at just 36%, with 61% unfavorable. And he has almost no support among Democrats (91% unfavorable) or among Republicans who don’t identify as Trump-first or Party-first (91% unfavorable).
A similar pattern is found in Trump’s job approval numbers – Trump-first Republicans are overwhelmingly approving of Trump’s job (98%), while Party-first Republicans are more skeptical (72%), and “neither type” Republicans broadly disapprove (90%). Bottom line: Trump is extremely popular with his base, broadly popular with party-first Republicans, and unpopular with everyone else – and that’s enough for him to be popular in Utah.
Cox: One foot in Trump-world, one foot out
Governor Spencer Cox’s support is a little bit more balanced. Among Party-first Republicans, 71% view him favorably, but among Trump-first Republicans, that number drops to 63%. Interestingly, Cox fares much better than Trump among those who identify with neither faction (35% favorable), Independents (45%), and Democrats (25%).
A similar balance is found in Cox’s job approval numbers as well – Party-first Republicans are most approving (75%) with Trump-first Republicans not too far off (69%), and about one-quarter of “neither type” Republicans (26%) approving of Cox’s job.
“This reflects Cox's positioning as a pragmatic conservative who has, at times, aligned with Trump but has not fully embraced the MAGA movement,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Although he endorsed Trump and has signed some MAGA legislation, he still isn't fully MAGA. Voters know it, and it shows up in his numbers.”
Mike Lee: MAGA, but not quite as polarizing as Trump
Lee’s base resembles Trump’s more than Cox’s. Lee has more support than Cox with Trump’s wing of the party (78% favorability rating) and a similar level of support among Party-first Republicans (67%). But he fares worse with Democrats (13% favorable), Independents (31%), and “neither type” Republicans (19%) than Cox.
Byler noted, “For MAGA Republicans, Trump is the real Slim Shady. There’s nobody quite like him. But they recognize that Lee is more of a Trump loyalist than Cox. So he posts better numbers within the GOP (especially the Trump-friendly faction) and worse numbers among Democrats.”
Mitt Romney: The mirror image of Trump
Mitt Romney, the former Senator from Utah, has a different profile: conservative in his ideology, but a frequent critic of Trump. As a result, Romney is an almost mirror image of Trump: unpopular among Trump’s base, but viewed favorably by most other factions.
Romney is strikingly popular among Democrats (58% favorable) and Independents (51%), but abandoned by many in his own party – just 49% of Republicans view him favorably. Only 30% of Trump-first Republicans view him favorably, while his approval among Party-first Republicans is 63%.
John Curtis: The Middle Ground
On the spectrum from Mike Lee to Mitt Romney, John Curtis finds himself somewhere in the middle. Like Cox, he has neither fully embraced nor fully opposed Trump. His approval ratings sit at 74% among Party-first Republicans, 59% among Trump-first Republicans, and 38% among those identifying with neither faction. Among Democrats (20% favorable) and Independents (37%), he fares slightly better than Lee, but not as well as Romney.
A Fractured Party Moving Forward
“Trump-skeptical Republicans are an endangered species almost everywhere – except Utah. There’s a spectrum from moderate to MAGA here,” said Byler. “On one side, MAGA politicians like Trump and Lee earn a positive favorability rating by catering to a mix of Trump fans and old-style Republicans. On the other side, there’s Romney – who alienated the Trump faction but kept enough Republican stalwarts, Independents, and Democrats to maintain a positive image. Then there’s Cox and Curtis – sitting in the middle, working with Trump but not fully embracing him.”
Byler added, “What’s most interesting: Despite their differences, all five of these men have a positive net favorability rating. There’s more than one path to success in Utah.”
The UTPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from March 11–13, 2025 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample via online opt-in panel and text-to-online. The sample included 609 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.9% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor, and recent Census data. *Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights revolutionizes decision-making for leaders by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that pave the way to success. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.