Gallego has an Edge on Key Issues while Lake Faces Trust Deficit with GOP Voters
PHOENIX (August 29, 2024)- After correctly predicting the outcome of Arizona’s GOP Senate primary, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holding significant advantages on several key issues, positioning him well in the race against Republican challenger Kari Lake. However, the poll also highlights potential vulnerabilities for both candidates, particularly in solidifying their base support.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 12–16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
General Election: Gallego Leads Lake
In a head-to-head matchup, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads his Republican opponent, Kari Lake, by 7 points (47% to 40%) – a 3-point drop from the May AZPOP when he led by 10 points. While Gallego’s support remained relatively the same since May, Lake earned 4% more support, which came from the 6% of May’s undecided voters who made a decision in August.
There are two key factors here: party loyalty and how Independents are processing the race. Gallego has stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Lake does among Republicans (81%). Gallego also leads among Independents (46% to Lake’s 29%), although one-quarter remain undecided.
The same dynamic shows up when comparing the Senate race to the 2024 ballot. Gallego has nearly all of Vice President Kamala Harris’s voters (92%) but Lake has fewer Trump voters (81%). Gallego is winning those who are unsure of their vote in the presidential race, 34% to 6%. But, 60% of voters who are undecided in the presidential race are unsure in the Senate race, too.
“Gallego is in a better position in this race. In our polarized world, it’s hard to imagine things going much better for him than they have in this past year,” said NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble. “Lake clearly has room to grow with wayward Republicans and swing voters. The real question – is she the sort of candidate that can grow her support?”
Favorability and trust on issues: More detail on why Lake trails while Gallego stays ahead
For Lake, the toughest number in this poll may be her net favorability. Currently, 50% of registered voters view her unfavorably, while only 37% have a positive view. Independents who are skeptical of Lake and a group of holdout Republicans are driving this trend.
Put simply, she’s alienated swing voters without consolidating the base.
Gallego’s numbers are better – but he still faces some danger. His favorability ratings could suffer if he becomes less of a generic Democrat and Republicans coalesce against him. Note that about 1 in 5 Republicans don’t have an opinion or don’t know who he is.
Lake also struggled to gain a definitive edge on many issues. Among all voters, she has a within-the-margin lead on only immigration and inflation – both issues on which Trump had a substantial edge over Harris. While Lake is trusted by a majority of Republicans on immigration (78%), her support wanes on other critical issues like climate change, where only 56% of Republicans trust her. This disparity highlights a broader problem for Lake: her inability to galvanize strong, across-the-board support from her base.
These numbers paint a complicated picture – but Noble has the synthesis: “Lake has many of the personal weaknesses of Trump – a bombastic personality, extreme positions, jumping straight to politics with little prior elected experience. But she doesn’t have Trump’s proven record on issues like the economy and immigration. She has similar personality problems and none of his credibility. If she wants to win, she has to change that dynamic,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Gallego, on the other hand, shines on the issues. On climate change, Gallego leads by a substantial 20 points (47% to 27%), and he has a 14-point lead on abortion (47% to 33%). On healthcare and affordable housing, Gallego maintains double-digit leads, further solidifying his position.
Both candidates have a strong base of fans – an identical 83% of Lake voters and Gallego voters say they’re primarily voting “for” their candidate rather than “against” the other. But that could change as time goes on.
“This race might get closer as Election Day approaches and people rush to their partisan camps,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “But it’s impossible to look at these numbers and not see real problems for Lake as a candidate, and a real lead for Gallego.”
"If Gallego can keep the conversation focused on his strengths—climate change, healthcare, and education—he’s in a good position," said NPI data analyst Maddy Westcott. "On the other hand, Lake will need to find a way to shift the narrative to immigration and taxes, where she’s on more solid ground, if she hopes to close the gap."
Conclusion
As the race for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat heats up, Ruben Gallego holds a lead on several key issues, but both he and Kari Lake face significant challenges in rallying their bases and persuading undecided voters. With the election theme still up for grabs, the next few months will be critical in determining who can solidify their support and tip the scales in their favor.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12–16, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.