New Poll Shows Tight Race in Arizona as Both Trump and Harris Appeal to Different Voter Bases
PHOENIX (August 27, 2024)- As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, the latest Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) reveals a highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite Trump maintaining a narrow lead, the entry of Harris into the race has significantly shifted voter dynamics, particularly among key demographic groups.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 12–16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
Shifting Margins in a Tight Race
According to the August AZPOP, Trump holds a slim 3-point lead over Harris, with 47% of voters backing him compared to Harris’s 44%, maintaining the same leading margin from May, when Trump led by 3 points (44% to Biden’s 41%). Notably, the percentage of undecided voters has dropped from 15% in May to just 9% in August, indicating that Harris’s candidacy has pushed more voters to make a decision.
“Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris+5 and Trump+5. That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll – but, with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
Before dropout, RFK became NBD
When Trump was running against Joe Biden, Trump benefited from the presence of third-party candidates. Young, non-White Democrats and others who had doubts about Biden’s fitness for office chose third-party candidates, which pushed Biden’s vote share down and increased Trump’s lead.
In this poll – conducted before RFK dropped out – the dynamic shifted.
With Harris on the ballot, Democrats are re-energized. The total third-party and unsure vote share is down, as wayward Democrats return to the fold and Independents get curious about Harris. Harris has captured meaningful leads among key voter blocs in August – some of which were Trump’s advantages in May. Independents, Hispanics, and younger voters (ages 18-34) are breaking for Harris.
More generally, voters have become happier about the major party candidates – leaving less room for third parties. The total number of “double haters” – those who have a negative opinion of both major party candidates” – declined from 15% to 10% between this AZPOP survey and the May edition. A whopping 92% of Trump supporters say their vote is for Trump rather than against Harris, while 86% of Harris voters are voting for her more than against Trump. About 1 in 5 Independents, moderates, and male Harris voters are voting against Trump.
“People are happier about the major party options now that Biden is gone,” said NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble. “That’s why RFK Jr. saw such a dramatic drop in the polls – and likely, in part, why he left the race.”
Issue-Based Voter Preferences
The poll (conducted before RFK Jr. dropped out) asked voters whom they trust to do a better job dealing with specific issues. Trump holds the edge on immigration (+14), inflation (+9), taxes (+8), and gun policy (+7). Harris, however, leads on issues that resonate more with progressive voters, including abortion (+13) and climate change (+12). Harris has a slight edge with education (+5) and healthcare (+4), but neither candidate has significant advantages with uniting the country or affordable housing.
"One party switched their candidate, but this is still a Republican vs Democrat race,” noted Byler. "Trump has retained his strength on immigration – his signature issue – and is capitalizing on negative feelings about the Biden economy. He’ll likely double down on immigration since Harris led the Biden Administration’s efforts on that issue. Harris is hammering Trump on abortion, a weakness for the GOP since Dobbs, and climate change. If it was still Biden vs Trump, they’d be fighting about many of these same issues.”
Personality Traits: A Mixed Bag for Both Major Candidates
The poll (conducted before RFK Jr. dropped out) also delved into the personality traits voters associate with each candidate. Trump is seen as more disrespectful (+14), prejudiced (+12), and reckless (+9) but is also viewed as more patriotic (+11) and slightly more humorous (+6). Harris’s main strength is being perceived as more compassionate (+9).
"People remember the Trump economy fondly – but they don’t love Trump himself. The Trump team will want to hammer on his positive characteristics heading into November," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "Harris is in a better position than Biden was. She takes the age issue off the table, and she keeps a lead in categories like compassion. She can also run against Trump, who – according to voters – scores poorly on some key personality traits."
“But the real question – the one that no one knows the answer to – is how Harris fares under scrutiny. She just secured the nomination, and voters don’t know her the way they know Trump. Soon enough, they’ll get to know her and either decide to put her in the White House or choose to give Trump a second chance.”
Bye, Bye Biden: Democrats happy about how Harris-Walz happened
An 80% majority of voters believe it was the right move for Biden to step down from the race, including 89% of Democrats, 82% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans. Additionally, 85% of Democrats say there was nothing wrong with Harris’s nomination process, including 82% who say she was also the right candidate for the nomination. And, 84% of Democrats think Tim Walz is a good enough VP pick.
"Trump’s ‘they forced Biden out’ attack on the Democrats’ nominating process isn’t going to land. The decision for Biden to step aside seems to have been a non-issue for most voters across parties," observed Mike Noble. “Democrats are happy with Harris as their nominee and Walz as her VP pick. This all bodes well for Harris, who can focus on rallying support without the baggage of intra-party drama."
Conclusion
As the 2024 Presidential race heats up, Arizona remains a battleground with no clear victor in sight. This AZPOP lines up with the broad consensus of many other polls that have Trump and Harris roughly tied, and is what we’d expect to see in a swing state like Arizona. Both Trump and Harris have solidified their bases, but the key to victory will lie in swaying the undecided voters and focusing on the issues that matter most to Arizonans.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12–16, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.