How AZ Gen Z Voters Shaped 2024
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Mar 11
- 5 min read
Gen Z voters in Arizona are proving to be more politically unpredictable than expected, with shifting student voter trends influencing outcomes in surprising ways. In the 2024 election, college campuses across the state shifted toward Donald Trump, defying the assumption that young voters would overwhelmingly back Democrats. While overall turnout among students declined, those who did vote trended more conservative than in 2020—a shift that could reshape future elections in this swing state. These trends suggest that conservative outreach efforts, changing voter demographics, and broader national shifts among young voters may have played a role in reshaping the political leanings of Gen Zers and college students. As Gen Z matures, their evolving political preferences and engagement levels will play a crucial role in determining Arizona’s political future. With hundreds of thousands of college students in Arizona and the ability to tip tight races, the fight for the student vote is more critical than ever.
College campuses in Arizona swung toward Trump by 6–8 points in 2024 — more than the 5.2-point shift statewide. Fewer votes were cast overall and for Democrats, but Trump gained relative to 2020.
Turnout increased on 30 of 118 total campuses (swinging mostly toward Trump)and 7 of 34 major campuses (split between both candidates)
A QUICK LOOK AT THE BIG FOUR
o ASU: Harris+33 Swing: Trump+13 Turnout: Decrease
o UA: Harris+55 Swing: Trump+8 Turnout: Decrease
o NAU: Harris+64 Swing: Harris+3 Turnout: Increase
o GCU: Trump+5 Swing: Trump+40 Turnout: Increase
BIG PICTURE OVERVIEW: Across 118 post-secondary institution campuses* in Arizona — including colleges, universities, professional schools, junior colleges, and other technical and trade schools — Trump picked up 7,470 votes relative to 2020. Harris lagged 17,962 votes behind Biden.
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+9 | 312,317 total votes |
| Harris+1 | 299,956 total votes |
Biden 54% | 167,918 votes |
| Harris 50% | 149,956 votes |
Trump 45% | 138,836 votes |
| Trump 49% | 146,306 votes |
Campus List: Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data
Turnout increased on 30 of 118 campuses. Twenty-three of those higher-turnout campuses swung toward Trump, while seven shifted toward Harris.
ZOOM IN MORE: Across 34 colleges, universities, and professional schools in Arizona, Trump gained 99 votes relative to 2020. Harris fell 6,317 votes behind Biden.
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+24 | 86,053 total votes |
| Harris+17 | 79,356 total votes |
Biden 61% | 52,226 votes |
| Harris 58% | 45,909 votes |
Trump 37% | 32,187 votes |
| Trump 41% | 32,286 votes |
Campus List: Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data
Arizona’s Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools
Turnout increased on 7 of 34 campuses. Three of those higher-turnout campuses swung toward Trump, while four shifted toward Harris.
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY (ASU)**
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+46 | 4,172 total votes |
| Harris+33 | 3,987 total votes |
Biden 72% | 3,007 votes |
| Harris 66% | 2,620 votes |
Trump 26% | 1,067 votes |
| Trump 33% | 1,307 votes |
Precincts: 0798 Sun Devil; 0390 Hudson
Winner: Harris Swing: Trump Turnout: Decrease
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA (UA)
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+63 | 5,103 total votes |
| Harris+55 | 4,796 total votes |
Biden 81% | 4,125 votes |
| Harris 77% | 3,672 votes |
Trump 18% | 898 votes |
| Trump 22% | 1,046 votes |
Precincts: Pima 042; 062
Winner: Harris Swing: Trump Turnout: Decrease
NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY (NAU)
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+61 | 2,166 total votes |
| Harris+64 | 2,328 total votes |
Biden 79% | 1,709 votes |
| Harris 81% | 1,895 votes |
Trump 18% | 390 votes |
| Trump 17% | 397 votes |
Precincts: Flagstaff 10; 12; 13; 20
Winner: Harris Swing: Harris Turnout: Increase
GRAND CANYON UNIVERSITY (GCU)
2020 |
| 2024 | ||
Biden+35 | 809 total votes |
| Trump+5 | 917 total votes |
Biden 67% | 538 votes |
| Harris 47% | 430 votes |
Trump 32% | 258 votes |
| Trump 52% | 475 votes |
Precinct: 0165 CORDOVA
Winner: Trump Swing: Trump Turnout: Increase
BIG PICTURE: In a swing state like Arizona, college students can shift their vote – and play a pivotal role.
Arizona’s three largest universities — Arizona State University (ASU), Northern Arizona University (NAU), and the University of Arizona (UA) — enrolled 198,229 students in 2024 (Arizona Board of Regents)
There are as many as 416,501 college students statewide in total (AllIn)
Trump carried the state by 187,382 votes in 2024 (AZSOS)
Gallego won the Senate race by just over 80,000 votes. (AZSOS)
Some students may be out of state or ineligible to vote in Arizona elections for other reasons. But if students decide to want a close election in Arizona, they have the power.
9% of 2024 AZ voters were aged 18–24 — down from 11% in 2020 (exit polls)
Opinion Shift for Recent Grads? Voters aged 18–24 supported Harris by 10 points nationwide, although those aged 25–29 supported Trump by 2 points.
This same group of Trump-curious late-twenty-somethings was ages 21–25 in 2020, when Biden won 18-to-24-year-olds by 29 points (Tufts)
MEANING: Conservative figures such as Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA (TPUSA), have grown increasingly influential in shaping political discourse among Gen Z voters. TPUSA’s focus on engaging young conservatives, particularly on college campuses, can have an outsized impact on voter turnout and behavior in a state as competitive as Arizona. It’s difficult to directly trace the shifts in the vote to any one individual (e.g. Kirk). But the bottom line: Republicans did something right on college campuses in 2024. Donald Trump gained votes on campuses in Arizona relative to 2020, even as turnout and Democratic support dropped.
*College campuses are defined by the Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data. For overall calculations, all precincts that intersected with the official campus boundaries were included. Students who attend these institutions may live off campus and may not be captured by this calculation. And some voters who live on these campuses may not be students. Precinct-level data comes from county governments.
**For individual-level college campus maps/breakouts, precincts were chosen based on overlap with official campus boundaries and demographic features of the precinct.
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