As the 2024 primary season comes to a close, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) is celebrating a clean sweep of accurate predictions across three key Southwestern states - Arizona, Nevada, and Utah. Our poll of record results in each state not only accurately forecasted the primary outcomes, but also provided deep insights into the dynamics driving voter preferences in these Republican strongholds.
The value of these polls isn’t just in the prediction – it’s in the explanation. They don’t just tell us what; they tell us WHY. Let’s dive in.
Arizona’s GOP Senate Primary
In Arizona, NPI's poll of record predicted a 12-point lead for Kari Lake over Mark Lamb in the GOP Senate primary, which closely mirrored the actual 16-point margin of victory for Lake.
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The deeper insight: Arizona used to be known for maverick Republicans like John McCain. Now, it’s at the forefront of the MAGA movement. Lake’s lead isn’t just about her as a candidate – it’s a reflection of how deeply Trump’s influence has permeated Arizona’s Republican base. Our poll showed Lake earning nearly twice as much support from Trump-first GOP voters compared to Lamb, underscoring how the MAGA movement has come to dominate the Arizona Republican base.
As NPI Founder and CEO Mike Noble noted, "Trump's endorsement in Arizona is gold. Arizona's GOP landscape has undergone a seismic shift since 2016, and what we're seeing with Lake is the culmination of years of realignment toward Trump-style politics. Lake has masterfully positioned herself as the torchbearer of the MAGA movement in Arizona, and it won her the primary.”
How we compared to other polls: NPI stands out as the only pollster consistently tracking this race throughout 2024, with three polls conducted in February, May, and July. This consistent coverage is significant, especially given the lack of public polling from other sources after February. Political analysts and election watchers expected a wider margin in the primary, but our poll nailed the close primary prediction.
Nevada’s GOP Senate Primary
Turning to Nevada, NPI's poll of record predicted a 38-point lead for military veteran Sam Brown over former Ambassador Jeff Gunter in the GOP Senate primary. The actual results mirrored our forecast, with Brown winning 59.6% to Gunter's 15%.
The deeper insight: The poll was conducted before Trump announced his endorsement of Brown, which is more than likely what swayed that share of undecided voters to his camp on Election Day. In past primaries, Trump has used late endorsements to deliver modest boosts to his preferred candidate. That, combined with the general tendency of undecided primary voters to break for the frontrunner, almost certainly pushed Brown’s vote share upwards.
How we compared to other polls: Other public pollsters bypassed this difficult race – turnout is uncertain in state primaries, Trump’s endorsement didn’t arrive until the last minute, and primary voters tend to move quickly. In fact, the only other publicly released poll within two weeks of Election Day showed Gunter +1. NPI is also the only nonpartisan pollster to release polling on this race.
As NPI Chief of Research David Byler noted, "Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll, and a low-turnout primary there is even harder. But we've been polling Nevada for a while now. We know the state, and we trust our methods, so we didn't shy away from this race."
The big picture: we had an accurate view of what Nevada Republicans were thinking when nobody else did.
Utah’s GOP Primaries
In Utah, NPI's poll of record accurately predicted the outcomes of both the GOP Senate and gubernatorial primaries. In the Senate race, our survey showed a 20-point lead for Rep. John Curtis over Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, which aligned with the final 19-point margin of victory for Curtis. And in the gubernatorial primary, our poll nailed the 13-point win for incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox over Phil Lyman.
The deeper insight: Historically, Utah’s political landscape has been shaped by political figures like Mitt Romney who represented more moderate Republican stances. Trumpian politics are not as popular in this heavily Mormon state as they are in other red states, and the loss of the Trump-endorsed candidate emphasizes that trend. In the poll of record, the Mormon vs non-Mormon split wasn't huge; other gaps – like the gender gap or the gap between Trump-first and party-first Republicans – made the difference.
How we compared to other polls: Other public polls on this race had Cox leading by at least 40 points, including the only other poll conducted in the month of June.
Our poll was accurate in both races, but the Cox vs. Lyman projection is a particular point of pride. Almost nobody in the national or state media was watching this race. Virtually everyone else who was paying attention overestimated Cox. But we got it right. We were careful about methods, our sample, weighting, analysis – and it really paid off.
What It All Means
Across all three states, NPI's polling prowess demonstrated our ability to accurately capture the pulse of Republican voters, even in the face of rapidly shifting political landscapes. The wrap-up of these primaries reaffirms the value of having a pollster who knows the ins and outs of the local electorate and sound methodology with a proven track record for accuracy.
NPI was ranked the #11 most accurate pollster and #4 for lowest average bias in the nation (#1 in the Southwest region for both) in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. Our continued success in this election cycle solidifies our reputation as the top pollster in the Southwest region. Voters and campaigns in the region can continue to rely on NPI as the gold standard for polling expertise.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said it best:
“We’re accurate because we care. We think hard about who to interview, how to write the best questions, the best ways to weight and do data science, how not to waste respondents’ time — basically we sweat the small stuff. And, in this primary season, that attention to detail has paid off.”
Learn more about NPI’s polling in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah here.
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