Nevada Moves to the Middle
PHOENIX (February 6, 2025)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) revealed a nuanced picture of Nevada’s political landscape in early 2025. For the first time in recent years, the state is showing signs of a political realignment, moving from a traditionally center-left position to a more centrist battleground.
This NVPOP, conducted from January 14–17, 2025, surveyed 813 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.44%.
GOP Gains Ground
Nevadans are feeling relatively optimistic about the state’s direction after the 2024 election – more optimistic than they have felt in the last year. A 53% majority believe Nevada is on the right track, while 47% think it’s headed in the wrong direction.
But the real good news for the GOP comes from the topline political indicators. For the first time in recent cycles, Republicans hold a narrow 2-point lead in the generic ballot, with 41% preferring a generic Republican candidate, compared to 39% favoring a generic Democrat.
Nevada voters also generally believe Republicans would do a better job of running the state (R +4), despite Democrats holding control of the state legislature. This represents a small but significant shift in a state that has historically leaned slightly Democratic.
“The 2024 election energized Republicans, and Nevada voters are putting more trust in the GOP than we’ve seen in the past,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Nevada has always been an interesting state to poll, and we are committed to being a source of truth for the evolution of the Silver State’s political climate.”
Biden Underwater
In the final days of his presidency, President Joe Biden had a net-negative job approval rating, with 40% approving and 57% disapproving of his performance (net -17). His favorability numbers were similar, with a net -16 favorability rating.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s favorability rating is about even at 48%* favorability and 49% unfavorability – good for a president who has, historically, been unpopular in the state.
“In theory, Donald Trump has always been the sort of Republican who could succeed in Nevada. He’s more interested in secular culture war and security issues – like immigration – than he is in religious culture war issues. He’s more flexible on economics than some of the more doctrinaire conservatives in his party. His persona is that of a casino magnate,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “In the past, something has always kept him from activating that potential and becoming popular in Nevada. For now – at least during this second honeymoon he’s having with voters – it appears he finally has.”
What Keeps Nevadans Up at Night?
Voter concerns remain primarily economic, with a majority citing inflation (52%) and affordable housing (50%) as top-three issues facing the state. Healthcare distantly follows at 37%; education and immigration round out Nevada voters’ top issues at about one-quarter each. Voters will be looking to state leaders to address these concerns as Nevada’s legislative session progresses.
Popular Leaders, But Can They Work Together?
Generally speaking, Nevada voters view their statewide leaders – who will tackle those top issues voters care about – favorably. Despite the partisan divide, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, Democratic Senators Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford all maintain net-positive favorability ratings. Although voters say they prefer Republican leadership for Nevada, the net-positive favorability ratings of the state’s current Democratic leaders reinforce the idea that Nevadans evaluate their politicians individually rather than strictly by party.
“Nevadans like their leaders—the real question is whether their leaders like each other enough to work together and make solutions happen,” said Maddy Westcott, NPI Data Analyst and Las Vegas resident.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research, added: “Nevada has, at least for the time being, moved from the center-left to the center. Voters think that Republicans are, in general, doing a better job and they give them a slight edge in core political questions. But Nevadans view their Democratic elected officials – like Senators Rosen and Cortez Masto – favorably. And, as we’ve noted in other releases, they tend to trust the state legislative Democrats on issue after issue. It’s a mixed bag for both parties – which is exactly what we’d expect in a purple state.”
Nevada appears to be transitioning from a reliably light blue swing state to a true centrist battleground. The months ahead will determine if bipartisan cooperation can translate into real solutions or if partisan gridlock will leave voters’ concerns unresolved.
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from January 14–17, 2025 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 813 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.44% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights revolutionizes decision-making for leaders by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.