Right to Abortion Initiative Likely to Pass
PHOENIX (November 1, 2024)- Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Nevada’s general election reveals razor-thin margins in the state's key races, with Democrats holding slight advantages in both the presidential and Senate contests.
This Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 28–31, 2024, surveyed 593 likely general election voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ±4.0%.
President: Harris +1
In NPI’s Nevada Poll of Record, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 2 points (49%-47%) in the battle for Nevada’s 6 electoral votes. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Trump gained 1 point, resulting in a 1-point lead for Harris. The September NVPOP showed similar results, with Trump and Harris tied at 47% each.
Trump and Harris receive similarly high party loyalty, but Trump has consolidated slightly more of his base (+78 among Republicans compared to Harris +72 among Democrats). However, Harris holds a meaningful advantage with Independents, capturing a majority of their support and leading Trump by 12 points with this crucial group. This race, as of this poll, is a dead heat and could ultimately be determined by turnout and undecided voters.
“Harris has an extremely narrow edge in Nevada. It’s the sort of edge that could be reversed by changing turnout patterns, late deciders, or numerous other events. But, at this moment, a visible advantage exists for Harris,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
U.S. Senate: Rosen+2, ticket splitting quickly dropping
In the state’s other race with national consequences, the Democratic candidate is, again, leading by a razor-thin margin. Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of Sam Brown by 2 points (47% to 45%), and remains up by 2 points when undecided voters were pushed to make a choice (48% to 46%). Previously, Brown lagged Trump, indicating a significant portion of the electorate was willing to split their votes. However, recent polling has shown that gap diminishing – and this poll shows only a small difference between the two races.
The Senate race mirrors the presidential race almost exactly in terms of partisan divides. Brown leads among Republicans by the same margin as Trump while Rosen’s leads among Democrats and Independents are within 1 point of Harris’. Like the presidential race, both Senate candidates see loyalty among their bases, but Independents are leaning left – turnout and undecided voters remain the potential swing factors come November 5th.
“I’m not sure if the gap between the presidential race and the Senate race will be this small in the end,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But we have seen the Senate race tightening over the last few weeks while the presidential race remains competitive. And other recent polls show a close race. Even if Brown loses, as most polls suggest, it may not be the landslide margin that many initially expected.”
Question 6: Right to Abortion Initiative
This poll also tested general opinion on Nevada’s abortion ballot initiative, using a condensed version of the ballot question to maintain an optimal length of interview (especially for live interviews). The poll’s wording was designed to capture overall sentiment on the issue rather than mirroring the exact ballot language.
Likely voters were asked: “There is a constitutional amendment on the 2024 general election ballot called "Right to Abortion Initiative' or Question 6. This initiative would create a fundamental right to abortion and limit the state's ability to interfere with that right before fetal viability, or when necessary to 'protect the life or health of the pregnant individual at any point during the pregnancy.' If the election were held today, would you support or oppose this measure?”
The poll indicates robust backing for abortion rights in Nevada, positioning Question 6 for approval at the ballot box with 59% support and only 7% undecided.
Although the Right to Abortion Initiative has enough support across party lines to pass, partisan divides are still evident. Democrats show overwhelming support at 84% while 57% of Republicans oppose the measure. A strong majority of Independents back the measure but are more divided with 62% supporting Question 6 and 23% opposing it.
“Nevada is a swing state. But Nevada Republicans are less religious than Republicans in other states. And many swing voters are pro-choice. Just as it is in Arizona, this is a wedge issue – dividing Republicans, uniting Democrats, and winning Independents. This question isn’t a forecast of the exact ballot measure result – but it does show strength for the pro-choice side”
Key Takeaway
As Nevada’s November election draws closer, the narrow leads in both the presidential and Senate races highlight the state’s pivotal role in shaping the national political landscape. With races this tight and strong divisions along party lines, the final outcomes will likely be determined by voter turnout and the choices of Nevada's critical swing voters.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 28-31, 2024, and surveyed Nevada registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 593 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Nevada electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 4.0% for likely voters. Error due to design, non-response and other factors are not captured by sampling error.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.