A Look at Silver State Sentiment on Four Key Ballot Measures
PHOENIX (October 1, 2024)- Just weeks away from the November election, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) finds that Voter ID requirements and sales tax exemption on diapers are broadly supported by Nevada voters, while the Right to Abortion Initiative and Ranked Choice Voting fall just below the 50% threshold.
This NVPOP, conducted from September 9–16, 2024, surveyed 812 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.44%.
Question 3: Ranked Choice Voting & Top Five Primaries – A Potential Overhaul in Nevada’s Electoral System
In Nevada, initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two consecutive general elections to pass. Question 3 was approved in 2022, and this November Nevadans will vote on it again. Ranked Choice Voting and Top Five Primaries would implement a wholly different electoral system – a system that has stirred debate across the country. According to the September NVPOP, a 43% plurality of Nevada voters support Question 3, while 30% oppose it. However, 1 in 5 voters remain unsure how they will vote – this measure could still swing either way.
Ranked Choice Voting has been an issue across America – most notably in Alaska, where it let Democrat Mary Peltola notch a surprise win in a red state. There’s evidence that this system could really change who wins elections, and Nevadans are still relatively split on whether to implement that system.
Support for Question 3 is stronger among Democrats (+19) than Independents (+12) and Republicans (+6), but the data also shows a clear ideological gradient. Liberals are driving support with a 54% majority saying they would vote “Yes,” giving net +30 support, while moderates are aligned with topline results among all voters. Conservatives are driving the opposition with 40% voting “No” and net -5 support.
Additionally, a similar gradient appears among educational attainment – higher-educated voters are more certain of their vote and more opposed to Question 3.
“This poll shows an early advantage for rank choice voting – but it faces danger,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “There’s real conservative resistance. And, as you climb the educational ladder, more people go from ‘Not sure’ to ‘No.’ The fact that these voters – the most likely to dig into the issues early in the cycle – are negative means that there may be headwinds here. Either side could win.”
Right to Abortion Initiative: Solid Lead for Pro-choice Forces
Abortion referenda have had huge success across the nation – and, right now, Nevada’s Right to Abortion Initiative is in good shape. Although there was a substantial 19-point decrease in support from the February NVPOP, Nevada voters remain net-positive on this measure (+22), with a near majority (49%) supporting the measure. Support follows predictable ideological lines, with liberals driving support (56% support, net +32) and moderates falling in line with all voters. Notably, although conservatives drive opposition to the measure, it’s not by much – only 7% more than all voters, and conservatives are net-positive on this measure by double-digits (+13).
Additionally, among Nevada voters who say abortion is the single most important issue facing the state, support for the measure is higher (57%). This suggests another familiar dynamic – that the voters who care about abortion most are now pro-choice, not pro-life. Activist energy has shifted left.
“This campaign is in a good position – but it needs to educate people well,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Not everyone knows the language of fetal viability, and it’s easy to get tripped up on exceptions. I expect ‘Yes’ to win in a state like Nevada – but there’s still work to be done on the pro-choice side.”
Nevada Voter Identification Initiative: Nevada is O.K. with I.D.s
Voter ID requirements are, as of the September NVPOP, a slam dunk with Nevada voters – the ballot measure has 71% support and minor opposition (14%). The poll found some internal Democratic resistance to this measure; but, like abortion, it’s a wedge issue – it unites one side (Republicans, in this case, with 83% support) and divides the other (Democrats, with only 59% support and 27% opposition)
Typically, arguments against Voter ID requirements hinge on the idea that it would unfairly disenfranchise racial minorities. However, the data shows that Hispanic/Latino and other non-White voters broadly support this measure.
“Voters are telling us that they see a clear difference between the voter ID measures of today and the voter suppression laws of the past. Voters across Nevada think that the electoral system could use a little more security – and that bringing a photo ID or remembering your social security number is not too big of an ask," said Maddy Westcott, NPI Data Analyst and Las Vegas resident.
Question 5: Sales Tax Exemption on Diapers – Nevada is United
One of the more straightforward initiatives on Nevada’s ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on diapers, and this measure is as much of a political slam dunk as Voter ID requirements – about 7 in 10 voters support Question 5.
Majorities of virtually every political demographic group support this measure, confirming the results of the February NVPOP polling on this issue. This follows a pattern of similar successful measures in Nevada, such as the removal of sales tax on feminine hygiene products in 2018.
“There’s not much to say about this issue. People across the political spectrum love children, and they feel for adults who end up needing diapers. Nobody wants kids and the elderly to face extra taxes. So this measure is starting out with very strong support,” said David Byler.
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from September 9–16, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 812 registered voters, and 692 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ± 3.44% for registered voters and ± 3.72% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.