Economy and Immigration Drove Nevada Red, but Voters Split on Future Expectations
PHOENIX (January 28, 2025)- In the aftermath of the election and just before President Trump took office, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) revealed the driving forces behind Nevada’s historic flip from blue to red in 2024, along with voters’ expectations for President Trump’s second term.
This NVPOP, conducted from January 14–17, 2025, surveyed 813 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.44%.
In 2024, Nevada flipped from blue to red for the first time in 20 years. At the dawn of President Trump’s second administration, this poll reveals why Nevada voters chose each candidate and their expectations for the next four years. The results highlight stark differences between Trump and Harris voters and set the stage for key challenges in the term ahead.
A Tale of Two Voter Bases
The economy and immigration were key issues throughout the 2024 election cycle, and they were the most important issues to Nevada voters when they decided who to vote for in the presidential race, followed by threats to democracy, abortion, and the candidates themselves.
But this NVPOP also found that Trump and Harris voters had completely different motivations. Trump voters – that is, Nevada voters who recalled voting for Trump in the 2024 presidential election – showed remarkable unity in their priorities, focused on two issues: the economy (44%) and immigration (29%). All other issues were important to only single-digit shares of this group.
In contrast, Harris voters – that is, Nevada voters who recalled voting for Harris in the 2024 presidential election – were split across issues. About 1 in 5 Harris voters said the economy (23%), threats to democracy (21%), and abortion (18%) were most important in deciding their vote. The candidate’s policy record (15%) and personality (13%) were also important to double-digit shares of this group.
"The data reveals a fascinating divide in how voters approached their decision. Harris’ coalition was built on a broad spectrum of concerns, whereas Trump’s base was united by those two dominant priorities: the economy and immigration. And now voters expect to see results from Trump on those issues,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Looking Forward: Voter Expectations for Trump's Second Term
The poll asked voters whether they expect certain issues to get better or worse during Trump’s presidency. Nevada voters feel most confident in the betterment of immigration (net +15 “better”) and national security (+13) under Trump. A slim majority of Democrats – including liberals and Harris voters – believe these issues will get worse.
The outlook for the economy, government efficiency, and inflation becomes more split. Pessimism on these issues is mainly driven by Democrats, liberals, and Harris voters – larger majorities (60-70%) of each group expect each of those three issues to get worse under Trump.
Overall, Nevada voters anticipate worsening conditions for climate change and abortion access the most during Trump’s presidency. Pessimism is again driven by Democrats, while strong pluralities of Republicans – including conservatives and Trump voters – say there will be no change on these issues under Trump.
“Immigration and national defense are must-haves for Trump – he has to do well on these issues or key chunks of his base may lose their energy. The next tier of issues is primarily economic. How Trump handles inflation and the economy will determine whether he’s popular, at least compared to other second-term presidents, or not. And if he manages the difficult feat of beating expectations on abortion or climate change, his popularity will likely rise even more,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
What's particularly striking about this data is how it reflects Nevada's unique position as a microcosm of national concerns. The state's diverse population shows us that while economic and border security concerns dominated the 2024 decision, voters maintain complex expectations across a broad spectrum of issues that will define the success of Trump's second term.
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from January 14–17, 2025 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 813 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.44% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights revolutionizes decision-making for leaders by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.