PHOENIX (July 24, 2024)- Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), a leading non-partisan political pollster, and Listen Labs, a fast-growing AI startup, recently partnered to produce a first-of-its-kind public poll, mixing traditional methods with AI-driven innovation. The poll, conducted from June 5-12, 2024, asked 802 registered voters across the U.S. about their economic experiences and their views on the 2024 election. The data was weighted by race, gender, political party, age, region, and education to match targets obtained from the Census, voter file, and other data sources.
This report focuses on the unique survey approach and detailed data on Americans’ economic concerns.
The Results: In-Depth Insight into the Economy
While our topline data confirmed that inflation remains a major concern, the AI-driven interviews allowed us to uncover nuanced connections between economic issues and voting behavior that traditional polling methods often miss.
529 respondents named inflation and cost of living as a core problem. Among those respondents:
60% cited inflation’s impact on daily expenses
51% talked about rising food prices
31% mentioned housing costs
6% mentioned education
435 mentioned “employment and income”
54% mentioned wage stagnation in relation to rising costs
501 mentioned the impact of government policy
142 mentioned healthcare, often citing affordability
Note that respondents fell into more than one category: that’s by design. Normal people face a complicated web of economic problems – not simply “inflation” or “healthcare” – and AI-integrated methods that both let people express that complexity AND help boil them into digestible summaries.
What Makes this Poll Unique: AI Interviews in Real Time
Traditional polling is closed and static. Pollsters design questionnaires full of multiple-choice questions – where respondents must pick from a pre-selected set of options – and every respondent sees the exact same question wording. There are huge advantages to this approach: when every person has the same experience of a survey, it’s easy to calculate results and communicate findings in a defensible, familiar way.
Rather than discarding the old approach in favor of AI, we experimented with combining AI with traditional polls. Specifically, this poll takes the strengths of traditional polling and adds a key element: One-on-one interviews with AI agents following open-ended questions.
We used closed-ended questions – i.e. “Which political party do you most closely identify with?” and “Who do you plan to vote for in the 2024 election?” to obtain demographic data and preferences on questions with a closed set of choices.
We then asked open-ended questions, such as “What is your biggest economic concern right now?” and let an AI chatbot gently ask follow-ups and obtain more information.
There were two key benefits to this approach:
Respondents loved talking to the AI – they spoke at length, giving full human detail in their answers.
AI can help categorize responses, cutting down on human coding time.
This approach also addresses some popular concerns about AI technology more generally.
When AI asks people questions – rather than answering them – hallucination risk is minimal.
AI can be used transparently on laborious tasks to save time. When an AI takes a first cut at coding open-ended responses, human supervision can still be added while sparing someone the labor of hand-coding each response.
The Results: Extreme Detail on the Economy
Once we obtained demographic data and asked some questions about the 2024 election (which will be reported on in a follow-up release), we asked respondents about their greatest economic problem. We allowed the AI to gently ask follow-ups and get more detail.
On this question – “What is your biggest economic concern right now” – the Listen Labs AI generated:
8 follow-ups per respondent, on average
1,028 total words from each respondent, on average
Automatic transcriptions from every voice recording
Voters were remarkably candid in their conversations with the open AI. One participant commented, “never thought i'd say this but... that AI interviewer was WAY better than any poll i’ve done. TOTALLY ENJOYED IT!!!!”
Voters loved talking to the AI. Here’s some sample dialogue, from one of our respondents:
Listen Labs (LL): What is your biggest personal economic concern right now? I'm interested to hear more about the financial issues that are top of mind for you.
Respondent (R): I think economically, inflation is always an issue. I know in the past couple of years, we've seen high inflation rates and such, and that concerns me. Additionally, I have student debt, specifically student loan debt, so I really appreciated Biden's relief plan. I was really upset to hear that Congress voted against it.
LL: You mentioned inflation and student loan debt as two major economic concerns for you personally. How have rising prices impacted your day-to-day life and financial decisions? Has it changed your spending or saving habits?
R: Inflation literally affects every aspect of Americans’ lives. A lot. The big one I see in my day to day life has been groceries. And the astronomical rise in the prices of everything, which has caused me to really try to budget. And kind of be more intentional with my spending habits.
LL: How much has the student loan relief plan factored into your views on Biden and the upcoming election? Do you think it will be a major issue for young voters?
R: I appreciated the student loan relief plan that Biden kind of conjured up. I know that he wanted to put it into action, but it was voted down by the checks and balances of our government, which is fine. I don't think it would be a major issue, but I know student loans affect a lot of our younger voters, so that might cause a lot of younger voters to turn away from Biden just for that reason.
LL: Thanks for sharing your perspective on how Biden's student loan relief plan and inflation are impacting you and other young voters. Given the economic challenges many are facing, what policies or actions do you think the government should prioritize to help ease the financial burden on everyday Americans?
R: I think the government should prioritize curbing inflation as much as possible, whether that be making better deals with countries for products or trying to find the best way to source economic products for everyday Americans. I also think something to be done could be more of the social support or government aiding programs and actually vetting who meets the qualifications. And if they don't, kind of cut them, but keep those programs in place. Don't stop them.
Where Polling Goes from Here
The AI revolution has not fully arrived – in polling or any industry. But it’s possible to see how pollsters could integrate AI methods into their current workflow.
David Byler, Chief of Research at Noble Predictive Insights, summarized the situation this way: “Polling is an art and a precision science. So, when we integrate AI into our workflow, we need to make sure we are never compromising precision. But we also need to find ways in which we can bring the richness of human language and experience into our methods.”
As polling firms grapple with increased skepticism and issues with declining response rates, AI-integrated approach could offer a way to regain public trust and provide more in-depth and accurate predictions. By allowing voters to express themselves more fully and analyzing their responses more deeply, pollsters may be able to capture the subtle shifts in public opinion that often determine election outcomes.
Byler added “Nobody knows exactly where AI will lead the polling industry. But, of all the innovations I’ve seen, Listen Labs is far and away the most promising.”
Alfred Wahlforss, CEO and co-founder of Listen Labs, continues, “In our divided world, there's one thing we all agree on: nobody likes filling out surveys. Yet these surveys often shape important policies, despite their unreliability. AI-powered interviews offer a solution. They allow us to gather data through natural conversations, combining the depth of qualitative research with the scale of quantitative methods. This approach can transform subjective discussions into concrete insights, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making and better policies."
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Methodology: This poll was conducted via online opt-in panel and AI interviews based on a semi-structured script by Listen Labs from June 5-12, 2024 and surveyed 802 United States registered voters, yielding a MoE of ±3.46%. The sample was weighted by ethnicity, age, gender, political party, region, and education to match targets obtained from the Census, voter file, and other data sources. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About Listen Labs: At Listen Labs, we’ve built an AI qualitative researcher that asks follow-up questions to uncover the “why” behind people’s thoughts and feelings. Our platform analyzes qualitative data at scale to surface insights, themes, and personas. We’re working with leading fortune 500 firms and innovative startups who use our tool to understand customers more deeply, quickly. Visit our website at www.listenlabs.ai
Media Contacts:
Alfred Wahlforss, Listen Labs, alfred@listenlabs.ai
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com