Generic House Race Split
PHOENIX (October 29, 2024)- With only days until Election Day, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) national poll of record on the U.S. general election finds an extremely tight presidential race with Harris leading by just 3 points, and an even split on a generic House ballot.
This U.S. poll of record, conducted from October 23–27, 2024, surveyed 707 likely general election voters in the U.S., yielding a margin of error of ±3.7%.
President
Vice President Kamala Harris leads Former President Donald Trump 47% to 45% in the race to the White House. When voters who selected “Not sure” were pushed to make a choice, Harris’ lead grew by 1 point, leading Trump 49% to 46%.
According to the poll, 37% of likely voters report that they have already cast their ballot and 63% have not voted yet. Harris leads by 22 points among those who have already voted (60% to 38%) while Trump leads by 10 points among those who have yet to vote (50% to 40%).
Key Demographics
Trump and Harris have extremely high party unity at statistically similar levels, but Harris is benefiting from a 5-point lead among Independents, 45% to 40%. This 5-point lead suggests a slight edge for Democrats, though such a narrow margin indicates a potential for late growth in GOP support.
GOP’s Gains Among Black and Hispanic Voters
The Republican Party is showing significant inroads with demographic groups that have historically favored Democrats by wide margins. Trump’s 45% support among Hispanic voters represents a notable 13-point improvement from 2020 (32%), while his 20% support among Black voters marks an 8-point shift from historical Republican performance with this demographic (12% support in 2020). These gains carry meaningful weight in historical battleground states with substantial Hispanic populations and/or Black populations such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida.
“The margin of error in a crosstab like this is huge – but they typically gesture in the right direction,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “I would be surprised if Trump actually won as many Black voters as this poll suggests – but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved on his showing from four years ago. The same is true of Hispanic voters.”
Education Divide Deepens: Harris’s College-Educated Powerhouse
Educational attainment is also proving to be a key factor in the election, with a stark gap between college-educated and non-college-educated voters. Harris commands a 19-point lead among college graduates with 55% backing her compared to 36% backing Trump. This educated demographic is critical for Harris, as higher turnout rates among college graduates may strengthen her position in battleground states.
The Battle for the Middle
Harris’ slight edge with crucial swing voters such as Independents (+5) and Hispanics (+5) suggests a highly competitive popular vote. These voters have historically played a decisive role in close races, and with a small but important tilt toward Harris, these voters could be the deciding factor in a tight electoral outcome.
“We are firmly in the gray zone here. Any key group could shift enough to flip a state. Some groups could move enough to flip the popular vote,” said David Byler. “In a race this close, either candidate could win the popular vote.”
Presidential Policy and Personality
NPI’s national poll of record also asked likely voters who they believe has the best policy positions and who has the best personality for presidency. Voters believe Harris has the best personality and temperament by a 7-point margin and the best policy ideas by a 1-point margin.
A positive for Trump is that he performs slightly better on policy than he does on personality, and being only 1 point behind Harris on policy shows he maintains competitive strength in his policy positions.
U.S. House
In a generic U.S. House of Representatives ballot, likely voters are evenly split between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate at 44% each. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Republicans lead by 1 point, 47% to 46%.
The demographic patterns for this question are similar to the presidential race, and the results are consistent with an extremely close race.
“Whichever candidate wins the presidency tends to also win House control – and if Harris is ahead by 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “And, given the new map with few swing districts, a generic ballot that’s roughly even suggests a very close House result too.”
A Race that Defies Historical Patterns
The 2024 presidential contest presents a remarkably complex electoral landscape. Perhaps most significantly, the 2024 electorate appears to be undergoing subtle but profound realignment. Traditional Democratic advantages among minority voters are eroding, while educational divides deepen. As the campaigns enter their final days, both candidates face the challenge of energizing their bases while simultaneously appealing to an increasingly fluid middle. The outcome may ultimately hinge not just on turnout and persuasion, but on which campaign can better adapt to these emerging electoral patterns.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted via text-to-online and live caller. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 23-27, 2024, from a U.S. likely voter sample (determined via screening questions). The sample size was 707 likely general election voters, yielding a MoE of ±3.7%. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected electorate by gender, region, age, party identification, race/ethnicity, education, and recalled vote according to recent voter file data and Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.