Presidential Race Within Poll Margin
PHOENIX (November 11, 2024)- As unofficial results from Nevada’s 2024 elections are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the outcome of the U.S. Senate race and the Right to Abortion ballot measure with incredible accuracy, and polled the presidential race within the poll’s margin of error.
This Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 28–29, 2024, surveyed 593 likely general election voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ±4.0%
and measured sentiment in the presidential race, the senate race, and the Right to Abortion ballot measure.
U.S. Senate
NPI’s most accurate result in this poll came from the Senate race. In Nevada’s competitive Senate race, incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen holds a slim 1.52-point lead over Republican Sam Brown, with unofficial results showing Rosen at 47.86% and Brown at 46.34%. NPI’s final poll projected a 2-point lead for Rosen (48%-46%). With 96% of the vote counted, it’s clear that NPI’s poll of record accurately captured Rosen’s thin but present lead.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 96% of expected votes in
“This race wasn’t close for most of the campaign. But, near the end, we saw tightening when others didn’t. A two-point Rosen victory looked like a bold leap at the time” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But, at this moment, it’s looking like exactly the right bet.”
Presidential Race
In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.18 points, 50.63% to 47.45% in unofficial results. NPI’s final pre-election poll projected Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump (49%-48%), a difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error.* This close alignment demonstrates NPI’s ability to capture the pulse of Nevada’s electorate, especially among key Independent voters, where Harris led by 12 points in NPI’s polling.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 96% of expected votes in
“The polls heading into Election Day were virtually tied – and we were just one point to the left of that,” said NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble. “Late movement towards Trump, sampling error, slight tweaks to turnout – all of these things can make the difference between predicting a Trump win or a Harris win. That’s why we judge the race by how close we got the result – and we were pretty close.”
Right to Abortion Initiative (Question 6)
NPI’s polling accurately anticipated overwhelming support for Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, with a predicted approval of 59%. The unofficial results show even stronger support, with 64.18% voting Yes and 35.82% voting No. NPI’s research highlighted that this measure had substantial bipartisan support, particularly among Independents and Democrats.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 96% of expected votes in
“Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll, and ballot measures are especially tough. When there’s no ‘R’ or ‘D’ attached to either side, voters are more likely to cross ideological lines. Plus, the measure was too wordy for a phone poll – so we tested similar, but slightly different language,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Even with all those hurdles in place, we were very close to the result. We thought Democrats were united and that there were Republicans and Independents who would back this measure – and we were right.”
Overall, NPI’s Nevada Poll of Record was a resounding success: the Senate line was extremely accurate, the presidential result was within the margin of error, and the abortion initiative played out as expected.
“As long as we’re around, Nevadans and key decision-makers in the state will not be deprived of consistent and accurate public opinion data,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
NPI has boots on the ground with some of our analysts residing in Nevada – we have vested interest here. Nevada should expect to see more of Noble Predictive Insights as we continue to bring consistent, accurate polling and insights to The Silver. Learn more about NPI’s polling in Nevada here.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 28-31, 2024, and surveyed Nevada registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 593 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Nevada electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 4.0% for likely voters. Error due to design, non-response and other factors are not captured by sampling error.
*Note that the margin of error for a candidate’s lead is roughly twice as large as the margin of error for individual candidates (the former is traditionally reported on poll reports). Intuitively, that’s because either candidate’s vote share could easily fall anywhere within the margin of error. More explanation can be found here.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.