Brown Hits Coveted 50% Threshold, Closest Competition Lags Far Behind
PHOENIX (June 7, 2024)- In-person early voting is coming to a close for Nevada’s primary election held on June 11, and as the race enters its final days, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Nevada’s GOP Senate primary shows Sam Brown in the lead.
This Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll of record, conducted from June 4–5, 2024, surveyed 424 likely Republican primary voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ±4.8%.
Military veteran Sam Brown leads his closest competitor, former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, 50% to 15% in NPI’s final poll of the Nevada Republican Senate primary. All other named candidates earned single-digit support.
When undecided voters were pushed to choose a candidate – that is, asked who they would choose if they had to decide today – Brown’s vote share grew to 53%.
Brown’s lead comes as no surprise. He made a stronger-than-expected run for his party’s Senate nomination in 2022, started his 2024 run with the support of Senate GOP leadership, and outraised his opponents. Gunter, by contrast, is cutting ad spending in the run-up to Election Day.
One of the best signs for Brown: He currently leads among both Trump-first Republicans (those who see themselves more as supporters of Trump than the Republican Party) and Party-first Republicans (who see themselves as primarily loyal to the GOP). He currently has majority support among both groups.
“Brown is clearly ahead right now, as he has been for essentially this entire race,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But there are still sources of uncertainty – such as how well each campaign turns out their supporters and, of course, how Trump handles his rally in Vegas.”
Trump is set to hold a rally in Las Vegas on Sunday. Trump isn’t backing any candidate yet, and a late endorsement – or even a pointed non-endorsement – from Trump could shift votes. A quarter (24%) of respondents said they were open to changing their vote, and some voters who think they’re fully decided might shift if they saw Trump pick a candidate.
“Primaries are volatile. Many voters decide who to vote for, or even whether to turn out at all, at the last moment. And all the campaigns will be trying to drive turnout in that final stretch,” said Byler. “We’ll see how the final stage of the campaign plays out – and what happens at Trump’s rally. But our data is clear: Brown is heading into the home stretch with a solid lead.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text (87%) and IVR (13%). The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from June 4-5, 2024, from a Nevada statewide Republican likely voter sample (frequent primary voters and Republicans registered after the 2022 primary sourced from recent voter file data using random selection). The sample size was 424 likely Republican primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.8%. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, and county to reflect the projected Nevada Republican primary electorate according to statistics derived from the voter file, as well as recent census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (480) 313-1837 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About the NVPOP: The Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) serves statewide polls to 800 Nevada registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. The NVPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.
Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any NVPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the NVPOP here.