How NPI Got it Right in 2024
PHOENIX (December 4, 2024)- With the final national race now called, unofficial results show that Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) national poll of record correctly forecasted extremely tight U.S. House and presidential races, and Republicans maintaining control of the House.
This U.S. poll of record, conducted from October 23-27, 2024, surveyed 707 likely general election voters in the U.S., yielding a margin of error of ±3.7%.
House
NPI’s prediction based on a generic House ballot indicated that the race for control of the U.S. House would be extremely close, with Republicans leading by 1 point. Unofficial results show that Republicans will retain control of the House with 50.6% of the popular vote (220 seats) for Republicans and 47.8% (215 seats) for Democrats. This aligns closely with our prediction of a very tight race, falling well within the poll’s margin of error.
*As of December 4, 2024
The Republican majority is expected to be even slimmer in early 2025 with three vacancies – two of them due to Trump’s Cabinet picks, and the third due to former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz’s resignation from the House last month.
“The electorate is undergoing a complex realignment, with traditional Democratic advantages eroding among some voter groups and winning GOP campaigns appealing to swing voters,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “But this ‘red wave’ we’re seeing may not be quite as big as it seems on paper. Republicans do have control of Congress and the presidency, but their House and Senate margins are narrow, and may get even tighter in the new year.”
President
NPI’s poll of record predicted a tight presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 points, 49% to 46%, in the NPI poll. This was within a few percentage points of the unofficial results as of December 4, with Trump winning 49.9% of the popular vote compared to Harris's 48.4% (within the margin of error for a candidate’s lead*).
*As of December 4, 2024
“Our poll correctly predicted that this would be a close race, and our demographic breakdowns captured how key demographic groups swung,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “But polling, when done right, is a fundamentally random enterprise. It’s based on the idea that interviewing a small slice of the electorate can tell us what the whole thinks. And in a close election, you can – by pure random chance – get a slice that slightly favors Harris instead of narrowly favoring Trump.”
The conclusion of the 2024 election reaffirms the importance of pollsters with a deep understanding of the ever-evolving political landscape and proven methodology. This latest poll in our Arizona series demonstrates our continued commitment to accurate electoral forecasting in the state. Our track record of precision contributes to our high national ranking for pollster accuracy, as recognized by FiveThirtyEight in the 2021-22 election cycle.
“We’re accurate because we care. We think hard about who to interview, how to write the best questions, the best ways to weight and do data science, how not to waste respondents’ time — basically, we sweat the small stuff. And, in this election cycle, that attention to detail has paid off,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 23-27, 2024, and surveyed registered voters via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 707 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected electorate by gender, region, age, party identification, race/ethnicity, education, and recalled vote according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
*Note that the margin of error for a candidate’s lead is roughly twice as large as the margin of error for individual candidates (the former is traditionally reported on poll reports). Intuitively, that’s because either candidate’s vote share could easily fall anywhere within the margin of error. More explanation can be found here.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.