And Closest Prediction of Write-In Lyman’s Vote Share
PHOENIX (November 12, 2024)- As unofficial results from Utah’s 2024 general election are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the outcome of the President, Senate, and Gubernatorial races. With GOP candidates leading by substantial margins, Utah once again proves to be a stronghold for Republican candidates.
This Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 28–29, 2024, surveyed 695 likely general election voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ±3.7%.
President
In NPI’s final poll of record, conducted just days before Election Day, results showed a 20-point lead for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, with Trump at 54% and Harris at 34%. Current unofficial results confirm our prediction, showing Trump winning Utah with 58.98% to Harris’s 38.30% (as of November 12) – an almost exactly 20-point lead. This outcome highlights the firm loyalty of Utah’s Republican voters to the former president.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 87% of expected votes in
“Utah is one of the trickiest red states to poll. There’s no official Census data for religion, but the state’s key religious group – LDS voters – is more hesitant about Trump than other Republicans. That means you have to nail both sampling and statistical analysis to get the right number,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “We did both. And we hit the nail on the head.”
In the presidential race, NPI’s poll of record was tied for the most accurate result of any survey fielded this fall.
U.S. Senate
NPI continued its streak in Utah with a spot-on result in the Senate race. In Utah’s U.S. Senate race, Republican John Curtis holds a commanding lead over Democrat Caroline Gleich, with unofficial results showing Curtis ahead by 30.28 points (62.36% to Gleich’s 32.08%). NPI’s final pre-election poll had projected a substantial margin in Curtis's favor (Curtis +28), closely aligning well with the current results and well within the poll’s margin of error.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 87% of expected votes in
“Curtis is seen as a unifying Republican figure in Utah, appealing to both the MAGA base and Trump-skeptical Republicans,” said Mike Noble, NPI CEO and Founder. “This broad appeal has clearly paid off in a state where party loyalty is a strong predictor of electoral success.”
In the Senate race, NPI’s poll of record was the most accurate result of any survey fielded this year.
Governor
The gubernatorial race was the most challenging top-tier race in Utah this year, with conservative Phil Lyman waging a write-in campaign against his one-time primary opponent, Gov. Spencer Cox. Despite this difficulty, NPI proved accurate in estimating Lyman’s vote share and predicting the final result.
NPI’s poll of record suggested that Cox would prevail by a 17-point margin (43% to 26%, with King in second place). Current unofficial results show Cox leading by 25.14 points (55.33% to 30.19% for Cox and King, respectively). That’s a significant difference – but still closer to the mark than other polls conducted in the final weeks of the campaign.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 87% of expected votes in
With results partially tabulated, Lyman currently has 9.36% of the vote. That sits squarely between NPI’s poll of record estimate (15%) and NPI’s October UTPOP estimate (5%). Every other publicly available poll either failed to include Lyman at all or massively overestimated him (a poll on behalf of Democrat Brian King’s campaign pegged Lyman at 19%).
“When write-in candidates run real campaigns, it’s hard to peg their exact support. People quickly flip between the write-in and the major party candidate they like the most – in this case, Lyman and Co. And write-in support can drop dramatically in the moments before an election, as voters decide they don’t want to waste their voice on a protest vote,” said Noble. “Nobody nailed the Lyman vote exactly – but nobody got as close as we did.”
“Three-candidate races are always tougher than simple two-candidate races,” said Byler. “But we had the most accurate public poll in those final weeks. We’ve shown – yet again – that we have the strongest read on Utah politics of anyone in polling.”
Overall, NPI’s Utah Poll of Record was a resounding success: our poll was the most accurate of any public poll in the Senate race, tied for most accurate in the presidential race, and had the most accurate read of Lyman’s vote share in the Governor’s race.
“As long as we’re around, Utahns and key decision-makers in the state will not be deprived of consistent and accurate public opinion data,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Learn more about NPI’s polling in Utah, Nevada, and Arizona here.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 25-28, 2024, and surveyed Utah registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 695 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Utah electorate by gender, county, age, party, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for likely voters. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
*Note that the margin of error for a candidate’s lead is roughly twice as large as the margin of error for individual candidates (the former is traditionally reported on poll reports). Intuitively, that’s because either candidate’s vote share could easily fall anywhere within the margin of error. More explanation can be found here.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.