Affordable Housing Moves into the Top Three Issues for Arizona Voters
PHOENIX (September 6, 2024)- Arizona is under light blue control – the Governor and senators are Democrats, while Republicans hold the Legislature and many down-ballot offices. The result is a partisan split of contrasting sentiments, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The poll paints a picture of a state grappling with general pessimism and shifting priorities for voters.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 12–16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
Pessimism Across Party Lines
Between January 2022 and today, a majority of Arizona voters have continued to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. In August, 60% of voters said Arizona is going in the wrong direction and 40% said it’s on the right track – a marginal improvement from May when 62% said “wrong direction” and 38% said “right track.”
In August, Republicans were overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 77% believing the state is on the wrong track. Within the party, the discontentment is slightly more pronounced among Trump-First Republicans (81%) compared to Party-First Republicans (77%). Democrats, on the other hand, are broadly optimistic – two-thirds say Arizona is on the right track, with Party-First Democrats (68%) and Harris-First Democrats (67%) in general agreement. Independents’ views on Arizona’s direction line up closest to the toplines with 64% unhappy with the trajectory of the state.
The poll also found that the length of residency in Arizona correlates with outlook on the state’s trajectory. The longer a respondent has lived in Arizona, the less satisfied they are with the direction of the state. Recent transplants – those who have moved to Arizona within the last five years – were more likely to believe the state is headed in the right direction (56%).
“It’s not hard to see why pessimism increased in this period. In early 2022, a COVID-19 survey hit the state. And since then, Arizonans have told us that inflation has become more and more of a pain point.” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Partisanship plays a role too. Longtime Republican Arizonans are watching the state turn purple – and they blame newcomers from Oregon, Washington, California, and other blue states. Democrats – whether longtime residents or new arrivals – are greeting this political change with more warmth. So, partisanship plays a role – but so do real-life conditions.”
A New Issue: Bringing Down the Hous(ing Costs)
For most of the election season, inflation, immigration, and abortion have been the top issues. That’s still true – but a new issue, affordable housing, has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters. And, affordable housing’s importance is comparable to the other top issues – it’s high. About 5 in 10 voters agree that inflation (52%) and immigration (48%) belong in the top three, and nearly 4 in 10 say the same about affordable housing (38%).
For Republicans, the top issues are immigration (74%) and inflation (66%), by a landslide. Affordable housing follows at 34% – a wide leap from inflation’s 66% among Republicans, but well in line with the overall 38% topline for affordable housing among all voters. Democrats care most about abortion (50%), followed by a statistical tie with inflation (40%) and affordable housing (39%). Independents’ priorities are even more split – they care about inflation (49%), immigration (45%), and affordable housing (40%) at similar levels.
“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about. And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “This is a rare opportunity for both parties – an important issue where neither side has a pre-existing advantage or even a defined message. The party that figures out how to win on housing will benefit hugely.”
Party Preference: Who Runs Arizona Better?
When asked which political party would do a better job of running the state, Republicans hold a narrow edge over Democrats, with 45% of respondents favoring the GOP compared to 42% for Democrats. This slight edge largely stems from partisan alignments, split Independents, and marginally higher GOP registration numbers. While Republicans (90%) and Democrats (90%) overwhelmingly favor their own parties, Independents are split nearly evenly with 36% favoring Democrats, 34% leaning Republican, and 31% supporting neither.
“But it’s not all just blind partisanship,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “While Trump holds a three-point lead in Arizona and the Republican brand remains strong statewide, low approval of the state legislature (net -16) and Kari Lake’s significant trailing in the Senate race suggests a more complex picture.”
The bottom line: while Trump and the Republican generic brand seem to be faring well enough, it’s uncertain if this broad Republican goodwill will translate to down-ballot candidates.
The 13% of voters who say that neither major party would do a better job of running the state are mainly comprised of Independents (31%), moderates (22%), and voters who have lived in Arizona for less than 5 years (22%). The issues this “neither” group cares about most are the unemployment rate (61%), healthcare (59%), affordable housing (53%), education (48%), and, notably, something else not listed (56%). Candidates will likely need to moderate on key issues and emphasize their commitment to improving everyday economic conditions to win over these non-partisan voters.
NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble offers insight on the importance of this group: “In a state as split as Arizona, non-party-loyal voters are a crucial group to pay attention to – these voters tend to be the ultimate decision-makers in tight races and play a key role in shaping Arizona’s political landscape.”
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12–16, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
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