Generic Vote Tilts Blue
PHOENIX (September 24, 2024)- Just weeks out from Election Day, the race to the White House is dead heat among Nevada likely voters. According to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP), Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in both a full ballot and a head-to-head.
This NVPOP, conducted from September 9–16, 2024, surveyed 812 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.44%. The full sample also included 692 likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.72%.
Presidential Matchups
With a matchup between Trump and Harris now officially set, neither candidate holds an advantage in a head-to-head or a full ballot among Nevada likely voters. Statistically tied in a head-to-head, Harris holds a nominal 1-point lead, 48% to 47%; in a four-way race, Trump and Harris are exactly tied at 47% support each.
*Note: this NVPOP closed before the Supreme Court ruled against including Jill Stein’s name on the ballot. Stein received 0% support among registered and likely voters in this NVPOP.
Among all Nevada registered voters, Harris performs slightly better, holding a 3-point lead against Trump in both a head-to-head (48% to 45%) and a four-way race (46% to 43%). This is a reversal of the pattern seen in the February NVPOP when Biden was the nominee and disaffected Democrats were voting for Trump, giving him a single-digit lead.
Large majorities of Nevada voters are voting for their major-party candidate of choice rather than against the other. While 84% of Trump voters are voting for Trump and 16% are voting against Harris, Harris voters are slightly more “for” their candidate with 88% voting for Harris and 12% voting against Trump. Independent Harris voters are also more unified in their “for” vote than Independent Trump voters – only 15% of Independent Harris voters are voting against Trump while 25% of Independent Trump voters are voting against Harris.
In the generic congressional ballot, the competition is tight too. Registered voters and likely voters prefer a Democratic candidate by 4 points.
Nevada’s DNA is tinted blue, but all the toplines point to the same conclusion: this race is extremely close. NPI Chief of Research David Byler said, “After Joe Biden exited the race, Harris quickly pulled this race into a virtual tie in the Electoral College. And, in recent elections when the Electoral College has been close to even, Nevada has tilted ever so slightly to the Democrats. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here.”
Note: this release highlighted the topline results above among likely voters as well as registered voters to provide an even more detailed view of the electorate as Election Day is just a few weeks away. The rest of the data reported in this release will be among registered voters only for ease of comparability to the previous NVPOP and identifying trends.
Partisanship Drives Presidential Preference
In a Harris-Trump head-to-head among registered voters, Republicans and Democrats support their respective party’s candidate at almost identical levels, with Independents evenly split (43% each).
In a state like Nevada where Democrats are more numerous, this translates into a small lead for Harris. An almost identical pattern is found in the generic ballot.
Familiar Patterns
Harris is winning the big population centers – Clark County and Washoe County, home to Las Vegas and Reno. But Trump has huge rural margins and is keeping it close enough in the cities to keep the race within reach.
Other familiar patterns are found among race/ethnicity and educational attainment. Trump performs slightly better than Harris with non-college grads and has a more prominent lead among White voters. Harris, on the other hand, does slightly better with Hispanic/Latinos and dominates among other non-White, non-Hispanic voters, and also holds a prominent lead among college-educated voters.
“My best guess is that there will be more of a racial divide in the final results – better Republican numbers among Whites and better Democratic numbers among Latinos when the dust settles,” said David Byler. “But they point to a larger trend. If politics becomes a little less divided on racial lines – and maybe a little more divided on education – both parties can stay competitive in a diverse, working-class state like Nevada.”
Issue-Based Voter Preferences
On many top issues – like immigration and the economy – Trump has somewhere between a modest and small edge over Harris. But on traditional Democratic issues like climate change, education, healthcare, and abortion, Harris has the edge.
The only issue where Trump leads by double digits is immigration (Trump +13). He earns the trust of voters on banning taxes on tips (+7) and inflation (+5) by modest margins, while his lead on gun policy and taxes, in general, are marginal.
Harris enjoys several wide margins on issues she leads on – voters trust Harris on healthcare, abortion, and climate change by 20 or more points. Notably, Harris also takes a double-digit lead on an economic issue – affordable housing (+11).
Personality Matters
Trump might still leverage his positions on immigration and the economy and regain the lead. But his biggest handicap is his personality. This NVPOP tested positive and negative personality traits. Most of the positive traits were a wash – but voters associated the negative traits more often with Trump.
Trump’s biggest downfall is being seen as more disrespectful (Trump +26), reckless (+22), and prejudiced by a 21-point or more margin. His main strengths are being viewed as more humorous (+8) and patriotic (+5). Harris swept up most of the more positive personality traits, with her biggest strengths in being seen as compassionate (Harris +21), emotional (+10), and trustworthy (+9). Her main downfall is being viewed as more weak (+7).
“The Trump-Harris debate, which happened the day after this survey entered the field, more than likely influenced the opinions of Nevada voters in this survey, particularly on the issues and personality traits questions,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. In fact, a CNN poll found that 63% of U.S. registered voters who watched the debate say Harris outperformed Trump – prior to the debate, voters were split 50-50 on who they thought would do a better job. Additionally, the CNN poll found that debate watchers had a more favorable view of Harris after the debate by 6 points (39% before the debate, 45% after the debate), while Trump’s favorability saw a marginal 2-point decrease in favorability (41% pre-debate, 39% post-debate).
“This election will be a nail-biter down to the final count. Trump and Harris’s bases are fairly consolidated, so Independents and undecided voters will be the catalysts. Winning a battleground state like Nevada will be crucial – Trump and Harris will be fighting tooth and nail to capture these must-have groups all the way up until E-Day,” said Mike Noble.
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from September 9–16, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 812 registered voters, and 692 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ± 3.44% for registered voters and ± 3.72% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.