Maricopa County Voters Rally Behind Transportation Tax Renewal
PHOENIX (May 30, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) found overwhelming support from Maricopa County voters for the renewal of Proposition 479 (formerly known as Proposition 400), a half-cent sales tax funding transportation projects in Maricopa County.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%. The total sample included 550 Maricopa County voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.18%.
Question Asked to Respondents:
“Back in 1985, Proposition 479, formerly known as Proposition 400, was passed by voters, renewed again in 2004, and will expire in 2025. Proposition 479 is a half-cent ($0.005) sales tax in Maricopa County that funds transportation projects such as freeways, arterial roadways, public transportation, and light rail. Would you support or oppose the renewal of Proposition 479?”
Key Takeaway: Robust Support for Prop 479
This AZPOP shows overwhelming support for Arizona's Prop 479 – nearly 7 in 10 Maricopa County voters (68%) support the renewal of Prop 479, with only 18% opposed. This is a notable increase in support compared to last July when 56% were in favor and 17% opposed.
Substantial majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents back the half-cent tax renewal.
"When a measure is supported by a 50-point margin, it's clear that it resonates well with the electorate," Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "It’s only a half-cent – most people are fine with it.”
Prop 479 enjoys strong backing even among demographics that might be expected to oppose or be skeptical of tax measures. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (63%) support the proposition, with only 25% opposed. Among voters who prioritize taxes as their top concern, 62% are in favor of the renewal. Similarly, 58% of those who prioritize inflation as their main issue also support Prop 479.
“Very few voters are against every single tax in every single situation. It’s easy to imagine a business-minded voter who opposes most taxes, but is happy to pay a half-cent to keep the highways in working order,” said Noble.
"Even groups typically resistant to taxes show strong support for this initiative," added Mike Noble. "It helps that it is a renewal of an existing tax rather than introducing a new one."
Conclusion: Prop 479 on the Road to Success
A strong majority of voters currently back Prop 479 – no key voter blocs fall below the 50% threshold for support. And, if support continues to grow, Prop 479 could cruise to victory on Election Day.
"Voters recognize the importance of the half-cent tax as a minor but essential contribution to public transportation and infrastructure, which goes to show that it’s had an effective campaign behind it,” said Mike Noble.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. The total sample included 550 Maricopa County voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.18%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About the AZPOP: The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) serves statewide polls to 800-1,000 Arizona registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. Deploying quarterly surveys, the AZPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.
Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any AZPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the AZPOP here.
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