Latest NVPOP Poll Mirrors August Fox News Results: Rosen +14
PHOENIX (September 26, 2024)- According to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP), incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown, solidifying her position as the front-runner in this U.S. Senate race.
This NVPOP, conducted from September 9–16, 2024, surveyed 812 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.44%. The full sample also included 692 likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.72%.
Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen holds a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown in both a head-to-head and a full ballot among both registered and likely voters. Among likely voters, Rosen is up by 14 points in a four-way race. This wide margin matches the results of a FOX News poll from August, conducted by Beacon/Shaw, who is an A-rated pollster. While this lead is significant, it is within the normal range of recent polling averages, which place Rosen ahead by about nine points.
Large majorities of Nevada likely voters are voting for their major-party candidate of choice rather than against the other. While 79% of Brown voters are voting for Brown and 21% are voting against Rosen, Rosen voters are more “for” their candidate with 88% voting for Rosen and only 12% voting against Brown. Independent Rosen voters are also more unified in their “for” vote than Independent Brown voters – only 14% of Independent Rosen voters are voting against Brown while 36% of Independent Brown voters are voting against Rosen.
Note: this release highlighted the topline results above among likely voters as well as registered voters to provide an even more detailed view of the electorate as Election Day is just a few weeks away. The rest of the data reported in this release will be among registered voters only for ease of comparability to the previous NVPOP and identifying trends.
Party Unity Challenges Brown’s Path to Victory
The poll revealed that a key strength for Rosen – a better-known incumbent – lies in her party unity. Rosen has strong, unified backing from her base (88% among Democrats), while Republican voters are more divided (72% support Brown). About one-quarter of Republicans are either on the fence, behind a third-party candidate, or backing Rosen.
Rosen also draws strength from Independents, who are breaking for her by a significant 16 points with 44% support. Notably, only 15% of Independents are undecided in this race.
“Rosen is in a good position because she consolidated her party – which is larger than the GOP in Nevada – and Brown hasn’t solidified his yet,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “She’s also doing well among Independents. If Brown can unify his side, it’ll get closer. But that hasn’t happened yet.”
Brown’s Name Recognition and Favorability Issues
Brown’s challenges are illuminated by his favorability ratings. Apart from a net-negative favorability rating among registered voters (net -21), one-quarter of Republicans have an unfavorable view of him. Independents are even more critical of Brown, holding a net -27 favorability rating of him. Additionally, about 1 in 5 Independents either don’t know who he is or don’t have an opinion of him.
“Sam Brown's path to this Senate race has been rocky. After running for office in Texas 10 years ago, he later moved to Nevada and lost to Adam Laxalt for the 2022 GOP nomination for Senate. Meanwhile, Jacky Rosen has deep roots in Nevada, having lived here since the '80s. Voters want someone who truly represents them, and while Brown has a heroic personal story, it's not enough to outshine Rosen’s tenure in Nevada. Plus, Rosen is outpacing him in fundraising, which allows her to run a stronger campaign that highlights her successes and undercuts Brown's,” said Maddy Westcott, NPI Data Analyst and Las Vegas resident.
Jacky Rosen’s Strong Image
Rosen’s image is much more positive (net +19 favorability), bolstering her position in this race. She has very high favorability among Democrats (85% favorable, including 60% who are “very favorable”), and even earns positive marks from one-quarter of GOP voters. While 17% of Independents are unfamiliar with or don’t have an opinion of Rosen, those with an opinion generally view her favorably (net +13 favorability).
Rosen’s Demographic Advantages: Women and Cities
Rosen’s lead is particularly pronounced among women and urban voters. In Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), Rosen has garnered strong support from voters in Nevada’s two largest metropolitan areas – she leads by 19 points in both counties. Brown leads in rural counties, but not by as wide a margin (+6). Women are also supporting Rosen at a high rate (51%).
“Rosen has crossed the coveted 50% threshold among several demographics. Brown needs to make up ground with all groups – men, women, cities, rural areas – if he wants to get back in the race,” said David Byler.
Brown’s Path to Competitiveness
Despite the current wide margin for Rosen, there is potential for Brown to make this race competitive again. His best strategy likely involves leveraging political polarization as the election approaches, capitalizing on his position just below Donald Trump on the ballot.
“Right now, I believe that Rosen is up by a wide margin, like the polling averages say. But that’s just the current snapshot,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “As both campaigns enter the final stretch, Brown will have the chance to bring Republicans and Independents who are voting for Trump back into the fold. Getting those voters might not be quite enough. As we saw, Harris leads slightly in our poll. But it would be enough to take this race back into the competitive range.”
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from September 9–16, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 812 registered voters, and 692 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ± 3.44% for registered voters and ± 3.72% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.