From Controversy to Confidence: The Evolution of Election Integrity
PHOENIX (December 12, 2024)- In recent years’ elections, the accuracy and integrity of elections have come into question in Arizona – from election denials to audits and recounts, Arizona voters’ confidence in elections began to dwindle. Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) highlighted voter satisfaction with election transparency and accuracy in the 2024 election while also pointing to areas where improvements could still be made.
This AZPOP, conducted from November 20–25, 2024, surveyed 988 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
Confidence in Election Results
In 2020 and 2022, debates over election integrity dominated political discourse. Donald Trump's election denial in the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake's denial of both Trump’s 2020 loss and her 2022 loss in the gubernatorial race had created a political climate of mistrust in the electoral process.
But, thankfully, voters are much calmer about democracy in the aftermath of 2024.
The post-election AZPOP found that around 7 in 10 Arizona voters are confident in the results of the 2024 election (71%) and in Arizona elections in general (70%). The partisan breakdown of these responses is especially encouraging. Typically, the party that loses the election expresses serious doubts about the results, as a way to cope with a psychologically jarring defeat. But, despite losing the presidential race, Democrats are sure the 2024 election was fair (71% confident).
“These numbers are a welcome reprieve from what we’ve seen in the past couple of cycles,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “America is the oldest democracy in the world. We’re a well-resourced country that knows how to run elections. Voters should feel confident in the results of our elections – and it’s good that they do.”
These numbers stand in sharp contrast to NPI’s polling following the 2020 and 2022 general elections, when voters followed the lead of their politicians and cast doubt on election results. In early 2021 (shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential loss), only 60% of voters trusted the results of Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election, and a majority of Republicans (54%) believed the election was stolen from Trump. In early 2023 (shortly after Kari Lake’s gubernatorial loss), 55% were confident in Arizona’s 2022 midterm election, and 45% of Republicans were not confident.
Factors Driving Voter Confidence
One factor in voters’ confidence in the 2024 election was the predictability of the results. According to the AZPOP, 51% of voters said they were not surprised by the presidential election results. Polling – which largely got the election right – helped voters set expectations. Most voters agreed that the polls were accurate (59%).
Mail balloting also played a critical role. In the 2020 and 2022 elections, some questioned the security and validity of mail ballots. But a large majority of Arizonans chose to vote by mail in recent elections, and our post-election AZPOP found that a majority of voters across party lines think mail ballots are safe and secure.
“Voters knew what was coming,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “News coverage predicted a close race, and polls were largely accurate. The methods of voting seemed secure. There just wasn’t a question in people’s minds about the process – and that’s a great thing.”
Room for Improvement: Speed of the Count
While confidence in the process has grown, voters highlighted one key area for improvement: the speed of ballot counting. According to the survey, 52% of respondents expressed frustration with how long it has taken to finalize results.
“Arizona’s elections are secure and trusted, but we can always improve,” said Noble. “Expediting the ballot counting process should be a top priority. Voters deserve accuracy, but they also deserve timeliness.”
A New Era of Election Integrity
The 2024 election marked a significant turning point in Arizona's narrative about the electoral process. With higher levels of voter confidence and trust in the electoral process, the Arizona electorate’s faith in elections is recovering from the narratives of election fraud and recount disputes in 2020 and 2022. While there’s still work to be done – especially in streamlining ballot counting – the data indicates that voters are optimistic about the state’s ability to uphold democracy.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from November 20–25, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 988 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.