Rising Confidence Despite Persistent Partisan Divide
PHOENIX (February 27, 2025)- Arizona voters continue to express optimism about the state’s direction, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). The survey provides insight into voter sentiment on key issues, political party performance, and the approval ratings of Arizona’s top leaders.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 11–13, 2025, surveyed 1,006 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
Rising Tide of Confidence
Voter confidence in the trajectory of Arizona is slowly but surely rising. The share of voters who believe Arizona is on the "right track" was 49% as of the February 2025 AZPOP – up from 44% in November, 40% in August, and 38% in May. Around this time four years ago, when Biden took office, voters were more optimistic by 12 points. Now, voters are virtually evenly split on whether the state is heading in the right or wrong direction.
Notably, this optimism transcends partisan divides, with 53% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats expressing positive outlooks. Independents were slightly more skeptical at 46%.
Groups driving optimism:
· Living in AZ less than 5 years (63%)
· Moderates (57%)
· Non-white, non-Hispanics (56%)
· Rural counties (54%)
· Some college (53%)
Groups driving pessimism:
· Pima County (59%)
· Conservatives (59%)
· High school or less (57%)
· Parents with adult children (56%)
· AZ natives (55%)
"Arizonans are feeling better about their state's direction than they have in quite some time," explained Mike Noble, NPI Founder and CEO. "While this doesn't indicate universal satisfaction, it signals a meaningful shift – there’s a growing sense among voters that things aren’t getting worse."
Competitive Political Landscape: Neither Party Holds Decisive Edge
Arizona voters are relatively split in their party preferences for political leaders. Democrats hold a narrow 1-point edge on a generic congressional ballot, earning 40% against Republicans’ 39% – a reversal from August 2024 when Republicans led by 1 point, 43% to 42%.
However, when asked which political party would do a better job when it comes to running the State of Arizona, Republicans lead by 3 points, 45% to 42% – statistically equal to November 2024 data (R+4, 45%-41%) and August (R+3, 45%-42%).
“This particular survey happened to produce slightly better results for Democrats than some of our recent internal and private surveys. That’s the price of doing business in polling: individual results bounce around," noted David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. "But what we’re seeing overall is a competitive environment. Arizona went blue in 2020 and 2022. Then it went red in 2024. And nobody knows where it’ll go in 2026."
Bread and Butter Concerns: Economic Issues and Border Security Dominate
Around this time four years ago, COVID-19 was still a dominant issue, but its significance has dramatically declined. The top three issues in January and March of 2021 rotated between jobs and the economy, immigration, education, and healthcare. In the last several months, Arizona voters have continued to rank inflation, affordable housing, and immigration as the most pressing issues at similar levels. The prominence of economic concerns and immigration remains in line with past polling, while affordable housing has emerged as a growing concern since May 2024.
Republicans’ top three issues, February 2025 compared to November 2024:
· Immigration: 61% (November – Immigration: 62%)
· Inflation: 55% (November – Inflation: 60%)
· Affordable housing: 36% (November – Affordable housing: 40%)
Democrats’ top three issues, February 2025 compared to November 2024:
· Affordable housing: 44% (November – Affordable housing: 39%)
· Inflation: 43% (November – Abortion: 37%)
· Healthcare: 38% (November – Inflation: 35%)
Independents’ top three issues, February 2025 compared to November 2024:
· Inflation: 47% (November – Inflation: 52%)
· Affordable housing: 42% (November – Immigration: 48%)
· Immigration: 41% (November – Affordable housing: 47%)
"The story here is simple: Voters care about immigration and economic problems. Trump won the state – and the presidency – on those issues," said Byler. “But voters also don’t think those issues are solved. Every political group is waiting to see how events will unfold – and whether Republicans can fix the problems they were elected to solve.”
Approval Ratings: Trump and Hobbs in the Spotlight
President Trump’s first job approval rating of his second term is overall positive, with 50% total approval to 47% total disapproval. This is a noticeable increase from his last approval rating at the end of his first term in early January of 2021 (54% disapproval, 41% approval). However, Biden’s first approval rating in March of 2021 fared substantially better, with 55% approval and only 39% disapproval.
Interestingly, the February 2025 AZPOP found a pronounced gender gap: Trump has a +19 net approval among men compared to a -10 net approval among women. Meanwhile, Trump’s topline favorability rating is evenly split 48%-48%.
“Trump is having a honeymoon. It’s not quite as positive as Biden’s was – but voters are definitely giving him some room to run at the beginning of his second term,” said Noble.
Turning to Governor Katie Hobbs, her approval ratings have dropped slightly from November, but she maintains a net-positive rating in February (+6), and a +9 net favorable impression. Perhaps most significantly, Hobbs earns +3 net approval among Independents – a stark contrast to Trump's -10 net approval among the same crucial voter bloc.
"Trump’s position is the best it’s been in a long time – maybe ever. But that doesn’t mean he’s invincible. Almost half of the country dislikes him, and it would be easy to alienate key swing voters,” said Byler. “Hobbs is in a slightly different position. Unlike Trump, there isn’t a permanent campaign being waged for or against her. She has some strengths and some vulnerabilities – and it’s too early to say how 2026 will turn out for her."
Senators Maintain Positive Standing
Arizona's Democratic senators enjoy favorable perceptions among voters. Senator Mark Kelly holds a +14 net favorability rating, while newly elected Senator Ruben Gallego demonstrates early strength with a +16 net favorable impression.
"The positive ratings for both senators may partly reflect the absence of immediate electoral pressure, with neither facing voters this cycle," Noble suggested. "But they do tell us what voters want. By studying the approval rating of Kelly, Gallego, and Trump we can understand what makes a Democrat or a Republican successful in this purple state."
Arizona's Political Horizon: Stability with Potential for Shifts
The trends found in this data suggest a period of relative equilibrium with the potential for significant shifts. The improving outlook on the state's direction, coupled with competitive partisan dynamics, lay the foundation for the political climate this off-year in battleground Arizona.
"What we're witnessing is an era of cautious optimism where Arizona's highest-profile leaders enjoy generally positive ratings," concluded Noble. "This represents a contrast from the intense polarization and negativity that characterized the political climate four years ago. However, this relatively positive sentiment could quickly dissolve as we approach the next election cycle and partisan competition intensifies."
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 11–13, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,006 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.