Trump Leads in Utah, But Faces Headwinds from His Own Party Base
PHOENIX (October 16, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) shows former President Donald Trump maintaining a substantial lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.
This UTPOP, conducted from October 2–7, 2024, surveyed 600 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.0%. The full sample also included 539 likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.22%.
In a state known for its conservative leanings and significant Mormon population, Utah presents a unique political landscape. The latest UTPOP poll reveals a complex picture of the state’s political preferences, showcasing both the enduring strength of the Republican brand and the nuanced attitudes towards former President Donald Trump.
Trump Maintains a Strong Lead
Donald Trump maintains a double-digit lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in a head-to-head matchup among both registered and likely voters. Among likely voters, Trump holds a 16-point advantage (54% to 38%), with 8% undecided. Registered voters show a similar trend, with Trump leading by 13 points (52% to 39%), and 9% undecided.
The presence of additional candidates on a full ballot makes no statistical difference in Trump’s support and leading margins. Among likely voters, Trump leads by 18 points, and among registered voters he leads by 14 points.
Generic Republican Outperforms Trump
Despite Trump's strong showing, the data reveals an interesting dynamic: Utah voters show an even stronger preference for a generic Republican candidate compared to Trump specifically. In a matchup between unnamed Republican and Democratic candidates, the GOP lead increases to R+25 among likely voters and R+23 among registered voters.
This gap between Trump's performance and that of a generic Republican candidate offers a window into the complex relationship Utah voters have with the former president and the broader Republican brand.
Note: this release highlighted the topline results above among likely voters as well as registered voters to provide an even more detailed view of the electorate as Election Day is just a few weeks away. The rest of the data reported in this release will be among registered voters only for ease of comparability to the previous UTPOP and identifying trends.
The resistance to Trump is coming from familiar demographics, primarily centered around party loyalty and Independent voters. Among registered voters, 15% of Republicans chose Harris over Trump, while only 7% opted for a generic congressional Democrat over a Republican. This suggests a specific reluctance towards Trump rather than a broader shift away from the GOP.
Independent voters, crucial in any election, show an even more pronounced split. Harris captured 51% of Independents in a two-way matchup, while generic Democrats only secured 27% in the congressional ballot. This 24-point swing among independents underscores the potential volatility of this voting bloc and their nuanced views on Trump versus the Republican Party at large.
Historical Context
Trump's relative underperformance compared to an average Republican is consistent with historical trends in Utah. In 2016, Trump lost 21.5% of the vote to Independent conservative challenger Evan McMullin, a Utah native who appealed to voters uncomfortable with both major party nominees. The 2020 election saw a similar pattern, with Trump's share of the vote lagging almost 6 points behind that of Republican Governor Spencer Cox, suggesting a willingness among Utah voters to split their tickets when presented with alternatives more aligned with local values.
Demographic Breakdown
The LDS (Latter-day Saints) factor continues to play a significant role in Utah politics. The poll shows that LDS voters are roughly twice as likely to support Harris than they are to support a generic congressional Democrat. This disparity highlights the complex relationship between Mormon voters and Trump, a dynamic that has persisted since the 2016 election.
The urban-rural split, a common feature in national politics, is particularly stark in Utah. Trump loses in Salt Lake County, the state's most populous and home to its capital city but wins in the rest of the state. In contrast, generic Republicans lead in all four of the state's major regions: Salt Lake County, Utah County, North Rural, and South Rural. This geographic division underscores the concentration of Trump's challenges in more urban and suburban areas.
"Nobody expects Trump to lose Utah. It's the most heavily LDS state, and Trump has had enduring problems with that demographic," notes David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. "But Utah could give us a window into what LDS voters, secular suburbanites, and other key demographics are doing in nearby states. In core swing states like Arizona and Nevada, voters who resemble the typical Utah voter may tip their state one way or the other.”
In a red state like Utah, small differences in GOP voter behavior can have real impacts on the topline results. This phenomenon has affected Trump in the past and continues to be a factor in his current standing. As the 2024 election approaches, these nuanced dynamics in Utah may offer valuable insights into broader regional and national trends, particularly in Western states with significant Mormon populations or growing suburban communities.
The UTPOP poll serves as a reminder that even in seemingly safe Republican territories, the political landscape is complex and continually evolving. As campaigns wrap up for 2024, they would do well to heed the lessons from Utah's unique electoral makeup and the subtle but significant shifts occurring beneath the surface of top-line poll numbers.
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 2–7, 2024 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 600 registered voters, and 539 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ±4.0% for registered voters and ±4.22% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.