Rep. Curtis in the Driver’s Seat in U.S. Senate Race
PHOENIX (October 17, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) shows Utah Governor Spencer Cox holding a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger Brian King, despite a notable write-in challenge from Republican Phil Lyman. And, Rep. John Curtis is leading his Democratic challenger Caroline Gleich by double-digits in Utah’s U.S. Senate race.
This UTPOP, conducted from October 2–7, 2024, surveyed 600 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.0%. The full sample also included 539 likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.22%.
Gubernatorial Race
In a head-to-head matchup, incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox leads Democratic candidate Brian King by over 20 points among registered voters, demonstrating his strong position even after a surprisingly close primary victory earlier this year. Among likely voters, Cox commands 54% of the vote compared to King's 26%, with 20% still undecided. This 28-point lead showcases Cox's broad appeal across the state and his ability to consolidate support from his party base.
Cox’s robust lead in the head-to-head matchup underscores the uphill battle facing the Democratic challenger in this traditionally Republican state. Notably, this margin holds steady in a full-ballot scenario – in the multi-way question, voters were given the option to select "Another candidate not listed" and write in their preferred candidate. A notable 5% of likely voters wrote in Phil Lyman – a respectable showing for a write-in candidate, but not enough to significantly impact Cox's lead.
“Lyman could grow his support in the final weeks of this campaign. But more often than not, third-party and write-in candidates fade as the election gets closer, and voters realize their choice is between the major party nominees,” says David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Some Republicans like Lyman more than Cox – but they don’t want to help a Democrat win. It would be surprising to see Lyman siphon enough votes to thwart Cox.”
Note: this release highlighted the topline results above among likely voters as well as registered voters to provide an even more detailed view of the electorate as Election Day is just a few weeks away. The rest of the data on the Gubernatorial race reported in this release will be among registered voters only for ease of comparability to the previous UTPOP and identifying trends.
Cox's job approval ratings reinforce his strong position, with 51% of voters approving of his performance as governor, while 38% disapprove. His personal favorability ratings are similarly positive, with 51% viewing him favorably compared to 37% unfavorably. In contrast, his Democratic challenger Brian King remains relatively unknown, with 24% of voters having never heard of him and another 30% expressing no opinion. Even among those familiar with King, only 24% view him favorably while 22% view him unfavorably.
Despite facing challenges within his own party earlier in the year, Cox appears to have successfully united Republicans behind his re-election bid. As expected in a red state like Utah, Republicans largely support Cox, while Democrats are solidly behind King, making it difficult for a third-party or write-in candidate to gain traction.
Cox maintains a strong lead among male voters, significantly outperforming King. The gap among women is narrower, but Cox still holds a solid advantage.
Regionally, Cox performs exceptionally well in Utah County and rural counties, earning majority support – at least double the support for King in those areas. However, in the more competitive Salt Lake County, he leads by a narrower margin (+10).
Religious affiliation plays a notable role in this race, with Cox overwhelmingly supported by LDS voters (69%) and other Christians (59%). King, on the other hand, performs better among voters who are atheist, agnostic, or have no religious affiliation, leading by double-digits with these groups.
As we turn to the U.S. Senate race, similar dynamics of Republican strength and religious demographics are shaping the contest between John Curtis and Caroline Gleich.
U.S. Senate Race
Utah Democrats have been on the lookout for a breakout star in recent election cycles, and they found one in environmentalist Caroline Gleich when she landed the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat by a landslide. However, entrenched party divisions continue to pose challenges, allowing Republican Rep. John Curtis to maintain a significant lead in the general election.
The latest UTPOP revealed a clear advantage for Curtis. In a head-to-head matchup, he crossed the 50% threshold and outperformed Gleich by a 2:1 margin among registered and likely voters. On a full ballot, Curtis’ leading margins remained statistically the same.
Note: this release highlighted the topline results above among likely voters as well as registered voters to provide an even more detailed view of the electorate as Election Day is just a few weeks away. The rest of the data on the U.S. Senate race reported in this release will be among registered voters only for ease of comparability to the previous UTPOP and identifying trends
Curtis enters the final weeks of the campaign with a net-positive favorability rating with 41% of voters viewing him favorably compared to 25% unfavorably. However, there remains room for movement as 20% express no opinion and 13% have never heard of him. His Democratic challenger, Gleich, faces greater challenges in name recognition, with 33% of voters having never heard of her and 28% expressing no opinion. Among those familiar with Gleich, 21% view her favorably while 18% view her unfavorably.
The dynamics of party registration in Utah significantly influence this race. Currently, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by a substantial margin – 917,776 to 241,993, according to official state counts. Given that Curtis and Gleich exhibit similar levels of party loyalty, this numerical advantage enables Curtis to maintain a clear lead. Curtis also enjoys a small lead among Independent voters, though a significant 44% remain undecided.
Curtis's impressive performance is not limited to his party base; he is also gaining traction among ideological moderates. By securing support from conservatives and establishing an edge with moderates, he has effectively placed Gleich in a challenging position. This broad appeal across the ideological spectrum further solidifies his commanding lead.
Religion plays a pivotal role in this race, with LDS voters significantly bolstering Curtis’s support at 70% to 10%, as well as leading with a 2:1 margin among other Christians. In contrast, Gleich performs best among the state's relatively small religiously unaffiliated population, 41% to 24%.
“If you squint and think hard enough, you can imagine a future where Utah is less heavily LDS, where politics is split more on urban/rural lines, and where Religious Nones provide Democrats with a strong base. If the GOP continues on its current trajectory towards Trump-ism, it’s theoretically possible,” says David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But we’re nowhere near that world today. Republicans still have a strong hold on Utah. And when a Republican like Curtis – one who can balance an appeal to MAGA and moderates – runs, it’s just hard for any Democrat to gain traction. Technically, anything can happen – but a Curtis loss would be the biggest Senate upset in decades.”
As both races enter their final weeks, the fundamental political dynamics of Utah – strong Republican registration advantages, religious voter preferences, and incumbent strength –continue to shape the electoral landscape. While demographic changes and evolving political alignments might create new opportunities for Democrats in future cycles, the current environment strongly favors Republican candidates Cox and Curtis, who have successfully balanced appeals to both their base and moderate voters while maintaining strong favorability ratings among the electorate.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 2–7, 2024 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 600 registered voters, and 539 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ±4.0% for registered voters and ±4.22% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.