15% Support for Write-In Lyman in Utah Governor Race
PHOENIX (October 30, 2024)- In ruby-red Utah, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Utah’s general election reveals a decisive Republican wave across the state’s major races, with GOP candidates firmly positioned to claim victory in the Presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races as election day quickly approaches.
This Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 25–28, 2024, surveyed 695 likely general election voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ±3.7%.
President: Trump leads by a wide margin
Predictably, former President Donald Trump is positioned to win Utah’s 6 electoral votes in the race to the White House, leading Vice President Kamala Harris 53% to 34%. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Harris remains at 34% and Trump inches up one point for a 20-point lead.
Trump is firmly ahead in Utah. In 2020, he won the state over Joe Biden by a similar 20.48 percentage point margin. Our October UTPOP survey showed a similar result, with Trump leading by 18 points among likely voters.
Much of the contest comes down to party loyalty. Republicans back Trump over Harris 75% to 18%. Harris, however, has Democrats more locked in (95% support) and leads with Independents (42% support to Trump’s 31%). But Republicans are the largest political group, and Trump’s support among them essentially cements the state for him.
Notably, Trump has also solidified his position among LDS voters (66% to 22% for Harris). Other Christians back Harris at 30% and Trump at 60%. Utah has a notable secular bloc that backs Harris 61% to 28%. But voters of faith are mostly backing Trump.
“Utah initially resisted Trump. But Trump has adopted many of the positions that the pre-Trump GOP held – and Utah moved towards him in response,” said Mike Noble, NPI CEO and Founder. “Maybe Democrats will gain a foothold in Utah someday in the future – but Tuesday will not be that day.”
U.S. Senate: Curtis leads by even more than Trump
Republican candidate Rep. John Curtis shows a commanding lead in Utah’s U.S. Senate race, polling at 51% against Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich’s 24%. When undecided voters were pushed to make a choice, Curtis’s support rose to 54%, while Gleich’s remained stable at 26%.
Curtis’ lead in this poll of record is similar to the results of the October UTPOP which showed Curtis leading by 30 points among likely voters. Notably, Curtis’ 28% margin is within range of Senator Mitt Romney’s victory in 2018, where he won by a significant margin of 31.7% in the state.
Democrat Caroline Gleich finds more party loyalty than Curtis, with 84% of Democrats backing her compared to Curtis’ 76% among Republicans. Both candidates capture about 3 in 10 Independent voters, though Gleich leads by a marginal 3 points with these voters.
Religious affiliation plays a significant role in shaping voting patterns in this Senate race. Curtis holds substantial support among LDS voters, with 71% supporting him. Curtis also garners 55% of support from other Christians but struggles to gain traction among non-religious voters, receiving only 25% of their vote. Gleich, on the other hand, sees her highest support among non-religious voters at 51%.
“Curtis is, in many ways, a compromise between the MAGA and Trump-skeptical wings of the GOP,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “He’s less resistant to Trump than someone like outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney, but not quite as fully onboard as Sen. Mike Lee. That puts him in a good position in Utah, where anti-Trump GOP voters and zealous MAGA converts both exist in notable numbers.”
Governor: Cox leads – but Lyman is the big question mark
Incumbent Governor Spencer Cox leads in his race with 42% support and his main competitor, State Rep. Brian King, at 25%. When undecided voters were pushed to make a choice, both candidates gained 1 point, giving Cox a 17-point lead in this race.
The surprise in this poll is not Cox’s lead – every reputable pollster has him ahead, by varying margins. The surprise is Lyman’s share of the vote – a significant 15%.
This poll allowed voters to select “someone else” and then enter the name of their candidate. In an effort to reflect the ballot as closely as possible, we also didn’t ask the two-way ballot test (just Cox and King) and we liberally counted misspellings and last names as votes for Lyman. In theory, this should produce the least biased possible result for current intention to vote for Lyman.
But it’s not clear if these numbers will hold up. Note that Lyman has a much lower share of the early vote (12%) than he does among voters who haven’t voted yet (19%). When faced with a real ballot featuring only one official Republican and Democratic candidate (Cox and King), some Lyman voters may drop off.
“Estimates of the Lyman vote are all over the map. Questionnaire design, mode of interview, population interviewed – all these factors might push the Lyman vote up or down,” said Byler. “We’re clearly expecting Cox to win. The big question mark is by how much – and how much the Lyman vote holds up will directly impact the result.”
Key Takeaway
This poll highlighted the strong positioning of Republican candidates across Utah’s 2024 election landscape. From Trump’s solid lead in the presidential race to Curtis’s significant advantage in the Senate contest and Cox’s double-digit lead in the gubernatorial race, GOP candidates are poised to dominate up and down the ballot. As final votes are counted, the election results will provide insight into the impact of a write-in candidate like Lyman on a traditionally stable race. While a surprise is possible, the Republican stronghold on Utah’s political landscape appears as resilient as ever.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 25-28, 2024, and surveyed Utah registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 695 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Utah electorate by gender, county, age, party, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for likely voters. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.