Poll Highlights Utah Voters’ Economic Anxiety, Mixed Feelings on Leadership, and Strong Support for Ballot Measures
PHOENIX (October 22, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) finds that Republican voters are expressing strong satisfaction with the state and its leadership while also navigating two distinct routes to political popularity.
This UTPOP, conducted from October 2–7, 2024, surveyed 600 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.0%.
Good Feelings – If You’re a Republican
Overall, Utah voters are split on their opinions of the direction of the state with 49% saying it’s on “the right track” and 51% saying it is “going in the wrong direction.” Republicans have particularly strong positive sentiment on Utah’s trajectory in comparison, with 61% satisfied with the state’s direction.
This optimism extends to their state leadership, with net-positive favorability ratings from all registered voters for Governor Spencer Cox (+14 net favorability), Senators Mike Lee (+5) and Mitt Romney (+13), and likely future Senator John Curtis (+16).
However, this positive outlook doesn't extend to all political figures. President Biden's approval and favorability ratings remain underwater in Utah, with his total disapproval at 71% and his unfavorability at 72%. And while former President Trump maintains strong support in general election matchups, his favorability ratings reveal a more complex picture among Utah voters (50% unfavorable).
Two Paths to Political Popularity
The poll revealed two clear routes to political success in the Beehive State. The first we call the "Romney Route" – maintaining conservative policy positions while displaying independence from Trump, thereby attracting support across party lines. Senator Romney's numbers show strong Democratic support while maintaining respectable Republican backing, though at a cost among the GOP base.
The contrasting approach, exemplified by Senator Mike Lee, focuses on consolidating the Republican base and, in turn, alienating the Democratic minority. This strategy has proven equally viable in Utah's political landscape, though it produces more polarized ratings.
Governor Cox and Representative Curtis fall somewhere in the middle between these two approaches. Cox's numbers show slightly less polarization than Lee's, with marginally lower favorability among Republicans, but higher among Democrats and Independents, leading to a slightly better overall rating than Lee.
Curtis, while less well-known statewide, follows more closely to the Lee/Cox model in his favorability patterns. Curtis is well-liked among Republicans (58% favorable) and equally disliked among Democrats (59% unfavorable) while splitting Independents (29% favorable, 24% unfavorable).
“These numbers might be confusing at first – but it’s clear that there are two paths to popularity in Utah. One is to show your conservative credentials – like Mike Lee so often does – and capitalize on goodwill from the state’s dominant right wing," says David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But there’s another path too – partially taken by Cox, and fully taken by Romney – of angering some on the right to gain the approval of some of the center and left.”
"Granted, this second path is getting tougher. Romney might have lost a primary if he had competed, and Cox endorsed Trump after a close call in the 2024 Utah Governor primary. But, in a unique state like Utah, there's room for more than one path to popularity," added Byler.
Ballot Measures
Amendment B appearing on Utah’s November ballot proposes to increase the distribution of the Utah State School endowment funds from 4% to 5% for public school funding. This ballot measure has broad support (62%) overall, including majority support across party lines.
“Voters are fine with spending more on education, especially when it comes from an endowment rather than an explicit new tax,” said David Byler.
Amendment C would formalize the election schedule for Sheriffs by adding the current practice of County Sheriff elections on a four-year basis to the Constitution. This measure also received majority support (51%) from voters and net-positive support across party lines.
Key Issues Paint Picture of Economic Anxiety and Housing Concerns
Utah voters' concerns paint a clear picture of a state grappling with economic challenges. This poll revealed that housing costs and inflation dominate public concern, with around half of voters listing affordable housing (57%) and inflation (49%) as top-three issues, and 1 in 5 voters ranking each as their number one issue. Taxes also sit high on the list, statistically tying with immigration as a top-three issue (27% and 28%, respectively).
Education and healthcare fall into a middle tier of priorities, with about one-quarter of voters listing each as a top-three issue. Abortion follows closely behind with 22% selecting it as a top-three issue, but notably outranks taxes, education, and healthcare as a number one issue at 8%.
Utah voters, while engaged with national political debates, are primarily focused on kitchen-table economic issues that directly impact their daily lives. The overwhelming focus on housing affordability and inflation suggests that candidates and policymakers who effectively address these economic concerns may find the most receptive audience among Utah voters.
The UTPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 2–7, 2024 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 600 registered voters, and 539 likely general election voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was ±4.0% for registered voters and ±4.22% for likely voters. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.