Majority of Utah Voters Say Trump Should Not Run in 2024
PHOENIX (December 8, 2021)- As President Joe Biden suffers his lowest ratings since taking office, Utah Republicans seem to be the only party in the state turning their attention to former President Donald Trump this far ahead of the next presidential election. According to the latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), more than half (54%) of Utah’s electorate does not want to see Trump run again in 2024.
This UTPOP was conducted November 5th – November 15th, 2021 and surveyed 671 Utah registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
With only 35% of Utah voters saying they believe that Donald Trump should run for re-election, the bulk of this sentiment comes from Utah Republicans. However, although 53% of Republican voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, this belief is not shared widely outside of the GOP. Only 20% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats (9%) believe that Trump should run again.
Voters who want to see a ‘Trump comeback’ in 2024 tend to be younger, particularly among Utah Republicans. Among all Utah voters, only 23% of 55+ year-olds think that Trump should run again, compared to 41% of 18–54-year-olds. Looking specifically at Utah GOP voters, 38% of 55+ year-old Republicans think Trump should run again, compared to 62% of 18-54-year-olds in the party. There is also a split in opinion among Utah Republicans by religious affiliation. According to the survey, 46% of Republicans who are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS) think Trump should run in 2024 while two-thirds (67%) of non-LDS Republicans want to see him run again. In fact, despite 67% of self-identified LDS voters in the survey reporting being registered Republicans and just 6% being registered Democrats, only 38% of Utah’s LDS voters in total want Trump to run again, while half (50%) do not.
“Even in a state that former President Trump won in the 2020 election, a majority of Utah’s electorate isn’t interested in a ‘Trump comeback,’” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “With only a fifth of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting Trump to run again, he may not be a viable candidate in the Beehive State next time around.”
Diving deeper into the former President’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. If Donald Trump does run again, 43% of Utah Republicans would vote for him in a primary given the option of eight other prominent Republicans (former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie). Falling behind Trump’s 43% support, Mitt Romney comes in second with 20% of the Utah GOP vote. No other potential candidate receives double-digit support.
In a 2024 Republican Primary in Utah, Trump performs best among non-LDS Republican voters (59% would vote for Trump), Republicans in Utah’s South Rural Region (57% would vote for Trump), GOP voters making less than $50k (56%), and Republicans aged 18-54 (47%). The former President is less popular among LDS Republicans (34% would vote for Trump), Republicans in Salt Lake County (34%), GOP voters making more than $50k (37%), and Republicans over 55-years-old (35%).
If Donald Trump does not run again in 2024, Mitt Romney (21%) and Ron DeSantis (18%) statistically tie for the lead. Mike Pence trails in third place at 13% while no other potential candidate cracks double digits – including Donald Trump Jr. In the eyes of Utah Republicans, the younger Trump would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. According to the survey, Trump Jr. sits at 8%.
“Without the former president on the ballot, however, the 2024 GOP Primary becomes a whole to more interesting,” said Noble.
The share of those unsure whom to support more than doubles from 10% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 23% Unsure without him.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 5-15, 2021, from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 671 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.8%. The sample of registered voters also contained a subsample of 333 respondents who self-identified as being registered members of the Republican party. This subsample has a MoE +/- 5.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, m.noble@npredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.