Republicans are Wary of Absolute Positions on Abortion
PHOENIX (May 7, 2024)- The topic of abortion is shaping up to play a major role in the 2024 elections, and knowing what voters’ stances will be crucial for candidates as they campaign. Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) finds that absolutist views on the legality of abortion won’t fare well with the majority of Utah voters across all parties.
This UTPOP, conducted from April 8–16, 2024, surveyed 600 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.0%.
Abortion Sentiment
Utah voters overall express a desire for a middle-ground approach to abortion, with 64% believing abortion should be legal in some cases – only 10% of all voters want a total ban on abortion. Democrats are evenly split between wanting legal abortion in all cases (44%) and having some limitations on abortion (44%). Independents want a ban on abortion the least (7%). A majority (58%) say abortion should be legal in some cases and the remaining one-third (36%) lean towards allowing all abortions to be legal. In contrast, Republicans are much more wary of absolute positions on abortion legality with three-fourths preferring some restrictions, and the remaining quarter split between legality in all cases (14%) and illegal in all cases (12%).
"Utah voters' attitudes towards abortion reflect a nuanced balance between individual rights and societal concerns," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "Absolutist positions on abortion would hurt a candidate of any party."
Abortion’s Impact on Elections
Abortion platforms are sure to make an impact at the ballot box in Utah. A majority (59%) of Utah voters say a candidate’s stance on abortion will be very or somewhat impactful to their vote. Abortion will be a powerhouse issue for Democratic enthusiasm, in particular – a near-majority (47%) of Democratic voters consider a candidate's position on abortion to be very influential. Only 25% of Republicans and 32% of Independents attribute the same level of importance to abortion stances.
Key Demographic Splits
The demographic directly impacted by abortion laws – women – shows a stark divide across parties in both their personal stance on abortion and in the weight they put on a candidate’s abortion stance. A majority of Democratic women (58%) want full access to abortion, and they are largely influenced by abortion platforms with 60% saying it will be very impactful to their vote. No other group comes close.
"This level of enthusiasm underscores the significance of abortion as a mobilizing issue for Democratic voters,” said Mike Noble. “Democratic women, in particular, prioritize abortion as a key factor in candidate selection, and they will be looking for a pro-choice position. Candidates should be mindful of that in their campaign strategies."
Abortion is yet another issue where we see division in the GOP. In Utah, Trump-first Republicans are more supportive of legal abortion (16%) than Party-first Republicans (9%). Trump-first Republicans are also more affected by a candidate’s stance (30% very impactful) than Party-first Republicans (21%). LDS voters within the GOP are significantly less likely to support unfettered access to abortion (7%) compared to non-LDS Republicans (25%).
“The splits in the GOP in Utah are not apples to apples with what we see in other states like Arizona and Nevada. There’s a unique political landscape in the Republican electorate in Utah, and conventional wisdom or common assumptions won’t always translate well here. That’s why it’s so important to lean on polling and use the facts to inform strategies, not rely solely on gut feelings,” said Mike Noble.
NOTE: A previously published version of these results included a coding error among rural respondents. The numbers shown above reflect the corrected results. Correcting this coding error shifted topline results and crosstabs by, on average, less than a percentage point. All text (insights, takeaways, etc.) are unchanged.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from April 8–16, 2024 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 600 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.