Poll Finds Specific Reasons Behind Kari Lake’s Unfavorability
PHOENIX (December 5, 2024)- Unofficial results are in, telling Arizonans what happened in the election. What vote count doesn’t tell us is why Arizona voters voted the way they did – the latest public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) answers that question.
This AZPOP, conducted from November 20–25, 2024, surveyed 988 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.10%.
President
The 2024 election wasn’t a surprise. Unlike 2016 and 2020 – when Hillary Clinton’s loss came as a surprise and Joe Biden’s margin was narrower than expected – Arizona voters saw the results of the 2024 presidential election coming (51% said they were not surprised compared to 46% who were surprised). And these voters told us WHY they voted the way they did.
Overall, a majority of Arizona voters felt that Trump had better policy ideas. Independent voters – who outnumber Democrats in terms of party registration – broke for Trump on this question by 9 points. This voter bloc was crucial to win over in Arizona, and Trump’s capture of a majority of them carried him across the finish line.
By far, the issue that was most important to voters when making their ballot decisions was the economy (27%). Immigration and threats to democracy tied for second place at 16% each. Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.
Republicans and Independents were extremely aligned on the issues that motivated their votes. The exact same share of Republicans and Independents (31%) said the economy was most important, and immigration came in second place – though immigration was important to more Republicans (24%) than Independents (17%). Democrats, on the other hand, cared most about threats to democracy (27%), but the economy was still important, taking second place with them at 18%.
“Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
Another potential factor in the presidential election results in Arizona was Harris’ proximity to Biden. As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.
Majorities of Republicans and Independents associate Harris primarily with Biden while less than a third of each see her as a new politician. More Democrats view Harris as forging a new path, but not by a wide margin (48% new politician, 43% Biden administration member).
“Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
This AZPOP asked voters an open-ended question: “Why, in your own words, did you choose Trump or Harris?” Among those who voted for Trump, a main theme in their open-ended responses revolved around Trump’s leadership qualities and policies rather than shortcomings of the Biden administration and Harris campaign – though there were some responses that centered around anti-Biden and/or anti-Democrat sentiment.
Among those who voted for Harris, a main theme in their open-ended responses revolved around Harris’ character and experience – though there were several responses centered around anti-Trump sentiment.
Senate
In the other headline race in Arizona, the U.S. Senate race, voters were mostly unsurprised by the outcome (48% not surprised compared to 44% surprised). This race, however, went well for Democrats. Ruben Gallego pulled off an impressive ticket split, winning by 2.4 points while Harris lost by 5.5 points. Part of the reason was Gallego’s skilled campaign moves – such as securing the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters and winning the endorsement of the Arizona Police Association over Kari Lake.
But part of the story was Lake’s weakness. This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons. The results found that the top reasons for her unpopularity were her election denials (both her 2022 loss in the governor’s race and Trump’s 2020 presidential loss), her personality, taking after Trump without offering new ideas, and distrust of her campaign promises.
“Our polls have consistently found Gallego ahead of Lake – Gallego’s victory is not a surprise. We also know that Lake’s biggest struggle has been that Republicans and right-leaning Independents have always trusted her less than Trump. But we dug deeper in this poll to find the specific reasons behind that sentiment, and it’s interesting to see just how negative of an impact Lake’s election denials have had for her – even though Trump’s election denial didn’t impact him in the same ways,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from November 20–25, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 988 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.10%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.